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Citigroup has reduced its forecast for Macau’s August gross gaming revenue to MOP23 billion, equivalent to $2.86 billion, after a slight slowdown during the second week of the month. It should be noted that the adjusted figure is higher than the previous estimate made by the company at MOP23.5 billion ($2.92 billion).
The latest prediction implies that there will be a 4% increase over August 2025 compared to the previously projected 6% increase. The change followed an assessment of gaming activity during the first 16 days of August.
GGR Run Rate Eases In Second Week
Macau’s GGR reached an estimated MOP11.65 billion, or $1.45 billion, during the first 16 days of August, according to industry sources cited by Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
The average daily run rate was approximately MOP721 million, or $89.6 million, during the week of Aug. 10 to 16. This was slightly below the MOP733 million, or $91.1 million, recorded during the first 9 days of the month.
Despite the week-on-week decline, the latest daily run rate remained above the MOP715 million, or $88.9 million, average recorded during August 2025. The figures show that current gaming activity is still running ahead of the daily level seen during the same month last year.
VIP And Mass Gaming Increase
Citigroup estimated that VIP gaming volume rose between 12% and 15% month-on-month. Mass-market GGR also increased by approximately 9% to 10%, according to the brokerage.
However, the VIP hold rate during the previous week appeared to be lower than during the first 9 days of August. Citigroup said the lower hold rate contributed to the softer average daily run rate in the second week.
The latest estimate reflects both higher gaming activity and a change in the hold rate. While VIP volume and mass-market GGR recorded growth, the weaker VIP hold affected the amount of revenue generated during the period.
Entertainment Calendar May Support Recovery
Citigroup expects Macau’s concert and entertainment schedule to support further GGR recovery during the rest of August. The calendar includes concerts by Chinese singer Lay Zhang at The Venetian Arena, K-pop group i-dle at Galaxy Arena, and FNC Band Kingdom 2026 at The Londoner Arena.
The brokerage’s revised forecast takes these upcoming events into account as it assesses the remaining days of the month. The entertainment schedule is expected to provide additional support for gaming activity in Macau during the second half of August.
Higher Daily Target For Remaining Days
The revised monthly forecast implies an average daily GGR of approximately MOP757 million, or $94.1 million, for the remaining 15 days of August. That level is higher than the MOP721 million daily run rate recorded during the week of Aug. 10 to 16.
The estimate reflects the amount of daily GGR needed to reach Citigroup’s revised monthly total of MOP23 billion. It also shows that the brokerage expects stronger daily performance during the remainder of the month, supported partly by the entertainment calendar.
For now, Macau’s August GGR remains above the level recorded during August 2025, although the forecast has been lowered from the earlier 6% growth estimate. The final result will depend on gaming activity, VIP hold, mass-market performance, and the contribution of the scheduled events.
Citigroup will continue monitoring the daily run rate as the month progresses and as the remaining concerts take place.
Source: Asia Gaming Brief
