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Optimove Insights analysis of 14.8 million bets shows that Wimbledon and the US Open attract similar bettor participation overall, but follow sharply different engagement patterns through the tournament
Sportsbooks preparing for the 2026 US Open should resist the traditional strategy of saving their biggest campaigns for finals weekend. Analysis from Optimove Insights shows that while the US Open and Wimbledon generate broadly similar levels of bettor participation, the audience behaves differently as each tournament progresses.
The findings are based on more than 14.8 million bets placed by over 897,000 bettors during the 2025 Wimbledon and US Open Men’s Singles tournaments across the UK and US markets. The analysis compared participation across the initial rounds, quarterfinals, semifinals and finals against average daily betting activity during comparable periods immediately before each tournament.
The results point to a clear difference in campaign timing. Wimbledon brings lapsed bettors back for its final. The US Open does not.
Similar Participation Until the Final
Across the first three stages of both tournaments, bettor participation followed a broadly similar pattern.
The US Open recorded 74% participation during the initial rounds, compared with 68% at Wimbledon. At the quarterfinal stage, the gap widened to 35% versus 27%. By the semifinals, participation was almost level at 26–27%.
The pattern changes at the final.
Wimbledon participation rose from 26% at the semifinals to 35% for the final. At the US Open, participation moved in the opposite direction, falling from 27% to just 8%.
The difference cannot be explained by the quality of the final matchup.
Both 2025 finals featured Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, then the world’s No. 1 and No. 2 players. Sinner defeated Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 at Wimbledon on July 13. Alcaraz won the US Open final 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 on September 7 and reclaimed the top ranking.
It was their third consecutive Grand Slam final.
Tennis bettor participation by round, US Open vs. Wimbledon, averaged across UK and US bettors. Source: Optimove Insights.
The data therefore points to structural differences between the tournaments rather than the appeal of the players involved. Timing, cultural relevance and the behavior of casual bettors around the final all appear to shape the engagement curve.
Wimbledon follows a U-shaped pattern. Participation declines through the middle stages before recovering for the final.
The US Open behaves more like a descending staircase. Participation starts strongly, remains healthy through the middle stages, and then drops sharply for the final.
The Pattern Appears in Both Markets
The difference is not limited to the combined UK and US figures.
When the markets are examined separately, the same broad pattern emerges.
At Wimbledon, participation in the UK and US markets falls to between 23% and 29% during the semifinals before recovering to 33–36% for the final.
Wimbledon 2025: percent of overall bettor participation by round, UK vs. US. Source: Optimove Insights.
At the US Open, participation drops to 8% for the final in both markets. The result is particularly notable in the US, where the tournament is being played domestically.
US Open 2025: percent of overall bettor participation by round, UK vs. US. Source: Optimove Insights.
There is one notable market difference earlier in the tournament. UK participation during the US Open quarterfinals reached 35%, compared with 26% during Wimbledon’s quarterfinals.
That means the US Open’s middle weekend can outperform the corresponding stage of the UK’s home Grand Slam among UK bettors.
What the Data Means for US Open Campaign Planning
The findings challenge the common tournament marketing model of gradually increasing investment until a finals-weekend peak.
For the US Open, the strongest opportunity comes earlier.
The initial rounds combine the highest participation levels with the largest number of matches. The main 2026 draw begins on August 30, following Fan Week and qualifying activity from August 23.
That makes the opening period the largest potential acquisition window.
The quarterfinals do not require the same corrective attention. Participation is already stronger at the US Open than at Wimbledon.
The semifinals represent the final major retention opportunity. Roughly one-quarter of the betting base remains active, making this the point to deploy retention and reactivation triggers before the audience contracts further.
By finals weekend, sportsbooks are addressing an 8% cohort in both markets. The remaining bettors should still be served effectively, but the data suggests that additional spending is unlikely to produce the kind of audience expansion seen at Wimbledon.
US Open 2026 Campaign Priorities
Before August 23, including Fan Week
- Finalize and load campaign creative before the tournament period begins.
- Segment tennis bettors by stake profile rather than market alone.
- Size bonus mechanics separately for UK and US stake distributions.
August 30–September 2, during the initial rounds
- Put maximum promotional weight behind the peak participation window.
- Maintain broad market coverage across outer-court matches rather than focusing only on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
- Have onboarding journeys ready for first-time tennis bettors.
Through the semifinals
- Use the final stage with roughly a quarter of the betting base active for retention triggers.
- Shift campaign emphasis from acquisition toward high-value retention.
- For UK-facing sportsbooks, focus VIP treatment on the $500+ segment.
Finals weekend
- Scale spending to match an 8% active audience in both markets.
- Continue serving the remaining cohort without assuming a Wimbledon-style participation rebound.
A Different Calendar for a Different Tournament
The analysis suggests that sportsbooks do not need a fundamentally different level of investment in tennis for the US Open and Wimbledon. They need a different timetable.
Wimbledon gives operators an opportunity to build toward a final that can bring bettors back into the market. The US Open brings its largest audience earlier and does not produce the same late-stage recovery.
For CRM teams, that makes campaign timing critical. Acquisition efforts need to be in place before the tournament begins, while retention activity should be concentrated before the final rather than held back for it.
The analysis is based on 2025 Men’s Singles betting activity across UK and US markets. Women’s Singles behavior was outside the scope of the dataset. Participation figures reflect the different number of matches available at each tournament stage and should therefore be compared across the same round between tournaments, rather than between different rounds within a tournament.
