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Prediction markets are starting to look less like a niche finance product and more like the newest on-ramp into gambling, especially for younger users who already live on apps, trades, and quick-win narratives.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi let people stake money on outcomes far beyond sports: elections, court decisions, celebrity headlines, even how often a public figure might post online. Supporters sell it as a smarter alternative to sportsbooks. Critics see the same familiar pull, now just dressed up with trading language.
Young users are showing up early
The youth angle is no longer just vibes. In a February 2026 report, The Guardian described prediction markets drawing college-age users who don’t even label the activity as gambling. One 21-year-old Florida State University student, Yadin Eldar, said he sees it as “a mix of betting and options trading,” arguing it feels different from “playing against the house.”
That mindset lowers the mental barrier to repeated wagers. The bet is binary, the interface is slick, and the content is endless. If the thing happens, you win. If it doesn’t, you don’t.
Big events are turning into trading festivals
Super Bowl Sunday was a major proof point. The Guardian reported Kalshi hit about $1 billion in daily trading volume on game day, while separate reporting said combined activity across Kalshi and Polymarket reached around $1.2 billion. The Associated Press also pointed to more than $1 billion in Super Bowl-related prediction market volume, highlighting the growing tension with traditional sports betting stakeholders.
This isn’t staying in its own corner either. Major business media have signed partnerships to display prediction market data in broadcasts, pushing the idea that these prices represent “real-time wisdom”, not just wagers.
The integrity problem is baked in
Unlike a point spread, some markets track behaviour that a person can influence directly. Polymarket recently offered a market on how many posts Elon Musk would make over a defined week in February, and trading volume climbed into the tens of millions of dollars. The criticism is obvious: if the subject can shape the outcome, what stops inside knowledge or quiet coordination? On many of these markets, the answer is: not much.
The harm signals are starting to stack up
Hard data on prediction markets remains thin, but broader gambling trends indicate the direction of travel. A JAMA Internal Medicine study found online searches for gambling addiction help rose 23% from the period after U.S. sports betting expanded, alongside a surge in betting volume nationally.
Meanwhile, the cultural shift is speeding up. As author Danny Funt put it in an Axios interview: “Everything is gambling now.”
Source: The Guardian
