for early access to the latest igaming videos!
and get the latest igaming news first!
Macau’s VIP gaming segment is expected to account for a minor contribution in casino revenues over the medium-term period, despite the partial recovery seen in the segment. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Macau gaming industry has transformed itself as a result of the pandemic, where mass market gaming represents the biggest contributor to the gaming industry.
In its most recent consultation report by the IMF on Macau, published this Tuesday, it was stated that mass market gaming accounted for 73% of the gross gaming revenue of Macau casinos in 2025. According to the reports by the IMF, the companies running these casinos have been able to adjust themselves with the post-pandemic era as the junkets have been regulated.
The changes were meant to enhance governance and improve money laundering and terror financing prevention measures. While the VIP segment has shown signs of improvement, the institution expects its share of overall GGR to remain limited.
Mass Market Drives Gaming Recovery
Macau casino GGR increased by 9.1% year-on-year in 2025 and reached around 85% of the level recorded in 2019. The recovery continued in the first half of 2026, with casino GGR rising by 6.9%.
According to the IMF, growth during the first 6 months of 2026 was driven by the mass-market segment. The report described the shift in Macau’s gaming industry as structural, with mass-market customers taking a larger role in supporting revenue.
The VIP segment previously played a more significant role in Macau’s casino industry. However, casinos are now operating under a different environment following the pandemic and changes to the rules covering junket operators.
The IMF said tighter licensing requirements, limits on credit provision, and stronger enforcement of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism measures have affected VIP gaming. These changes contributed to weaker demand from high-end customers.
However, despite the positive trend in gambling and tourism, Macau’s real GDP stayed at a level about 10% lower than the one before the pandemic. According to the IMF, this fact was partly related to the structural changes occurring in the gaming industry.
Casino Reliance Remains High
The IMF estimated that the casino industry accounts for between 40% and 45% of Macau’s GDP. The city’s tourism market also remains heavily connected to visitors from mainland China, who represented around 70% of total visitor arrivals.
The institution said this concentration leaves Macau’s economy and public revenue exposed to external shocks and cyclical changes. It identified stronger competition in the gaming sector as a downside risk to the economic outlook.
Among other risks noted in the report are the potential slowdown in mainland China, trade conflict re-emergence, and financial market instability. The IMF also warned that a lengthy economic downturn in the domestic property market and poor performance of mainland China could impact economic activity.
The report predicts 3.3% of real GDP growth for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027. That is less than the 4.7% of growth achieved in 2025.
The IMF expects Macau’s annual growth to remain near 3% over the medium term, with slower growth in mainland China affecting tourism and gaming activity.
Non-Gaming Investment Needed
The IMF said Macau will need further investment to meet its goal of increasing non-gaming activities to 60% of GDP by 2030, as outlined in the city’s Third Five-Year Plan.
The institution identified investment in skills, talent attraction, physical and digital infrastructure, and improvements to the business environment as priorities. It also said Macau’s non-gaming economy remains below its potential.
The IMF estimated a negative output gap of 1.6% in 2026. It expects that gap to narrow gradually and close by 2030.
Source: GGR Asia
