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According to CreditSights analysts, VIP gaming in Macau should continue to show growth through the early part of 2026 due to easy year-on-year comparison and ongoing relatively strong growth in the first part of the year. However, GGR per visitor will face increased obstacles in the last half of the year due to the significant return and increase of tourists from China’s wealthy provinces as they approach or exceed Mid-Pandemic Levels of visitors to Macau. Any extra footfall from here on out stands to draw predominantly from lower-spending areas, which could blunt the impact of ongoing high-roller activity. Nicholas Chen and David Bussey, writing under the FitchSolutions banner, dismiss the Macau government’s fiscal year 2026 GGR forecast of MOP236 billion ($29.45 billion)—marking a 4.6 percent slide from 2025’s MOP247.4 billion ($30.88 billion)—as excessively downbeat, noting in low-to-single-digit upticks instead.
2025 Surge Powered by VIP and Record Crowds
Last year’s performance underscored VIP’s muscle, with the segment posting 24 percent growth to claim 27 percent of overall GGR, even as total revenue per visitor dipped 5 percent to MOP6,174 ($770.5). Macau notched its all-time high visitor tally of 40.07 million, a 13.7 percent leap, yet mass market gains lagged at just 4 percent. VIP gaming in Macau also ended the fourth quarter with a strong 45 percent gain to MOP20.3 billion ($2.53 billion), thanks to the positive wealth effect of mainland and Hong Kong stock market rallies, led by a 30 percent jump in the Hang Seng Index and a 27 percent increase in the China Securities Index. Weaker provinces were expected to fill the pipeline with shallow pockets.
First-Half Tailwinds Linger
Early 2026 benefits from those softer baselines, keeping VIP on a healthy clip as premium travelers maintain pace. Residual stock market glow and steady hold percentages should sustain volumes, while mass chugs along without dramatic flair. The official FY26 target feels overly grim following 2025’s 9.1 percent advance, with Chen and Bussey eyeing measured progress over outright retreat. Peak arrivals affirm Macau’s pull, affording operators breathing room to hone product mixes, amp non-gaming perks, and lock in loyalty amid shifting demographics. Affluent exhaustion hasn’t reduced vibrancy entirely, but per-head dynamics loom larger now that sheer numbers have surged record heights.
Late-Year Headwinds Temper Gains
Come the second half, influxes from budget-conscious provinces dominate, crimping average GGR as spending profiles flatten. VIP bright spots endure, yet broader traffic patterns limit blockbuster leaps reminiscent of recent quarters. The junket landscape’s evolution curbs volatility but also reins in volume spikes, leaving mass to grind incremental wins without catalysts. Totals settle into low single digits at most, respectable footing, though shy of 2025’s fireworks. CreditSights charts this trajectory as pragmatic, weighing recent peaks against a maturing recovery arc.
Steady Path Amid Mix Shifts
Macau’s climb to 85 percent of 2019 norms reflects underlying resilience, positioning FY26 for cautious strides beyond the government’s somber call. Operators bank on premium mass durability and visitor highs to cushion blend changes. Low-single-digit advances eclipse the MOP236 billion downside scenario, leveraging front-half vigor for a more even keel later. As high-end sources max out, efficiency and diversification anchor the landing, tracing a deliberate course forward in a post-pandemic phase.
Source: Asia Gaming Brief (AGB)
