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Macau’s gross gaming revenue kept up the strong stride through late January, with daily figures as of January 26 running ahead of the usual pre-pandemic seasonal flow, according to fresh analysis from UBS. According to research conducted by a brokerage firm, January-to-date gross gaming revenue totals approximately MOP712 million, or $88.8 million, each day in January, a steady 21 percent growth when compared to January 2022, which is up 6 percent compared to December 2022 gross gaming revenue. This growth rate substantially exceeds the pre-pandemic five-year average growth of 2 percent per month in January (2015-2019), indicating that operators are continuing to capture both mass and VIP segments beyond the holiday peak periods and experiencing growth in both segments. The continued growth of MOP712 million ($88.8 million) per day gross gaming revenue since late January and through the Chinese New Year in February indicates a sustained recovery of operators.
Mass and VIP Both Climb
Mass-market GGR looked to rise 6 to 8 percent from December, while VIP volumes matched that range, UBS noted in its report. This balanced push reflects resilient play outside festive slowdowns, rebounding from December’s softer year-end showing that missed some forecasts. The strength of hotel occupancy is reflected in 27 of 32 hotels being sold out directly prior to the Lunar New Year holiday, indicating strong visitation to Macau and consistency with January 2022 statistics. Continued strength in visitation will also benefit 2025 as more visitors come to Macau in February.
January-February Combo Steady
Citigroup’s projection for combined January and February gross gaming revenue continues to be MOP42.0 billion ($5.24 billion), or 10.5 percent more than January 2022. There are many differences in availability for the months of January and February due to the Lunar New Year celebratory calendar and Golden Week holidays, so it is common for analysts to look at both months together to offer a more accurate picture of demand within Macau. UBS’s outperformance view fits that frame, with late-January heat suggesting the duo clears hurdles despite calendar quirks. Mass strength and VIP upticks point to diversified flows, less reliant on peak bursts as affluent recovery deepens.
Seasonality No Longer a Drag
Pre-COVID patterns showed modest late-month creeps, but current momentum doubles that, per UBS checks. Daily MOP712 million eclipses 21 percent YoY gains, 6 percent MoM, topping historical 2 percent norms. December’s holiday miss fades as January resets higher, hotels full ahead of festivities. This resilience hints at structural shifts—non-gaming amps, premium mass focus, sustaining floors beyond tourist floods. Operators ride easy comps early year, positioning for Golden Week lift without overreliance.
Holiday Outlook Bolstered
Sold-out rooms across most properties mirror the prior year, backing UBS’s positive read into February. Citigroup’s steady January to February target absorbs seasonality, eyeing 10.5 percent growth on MOP42 billion. Macau’s post-2025 trajectory, a 9 percent yearly rise to MOP247.4 billion, sets the base for measured advances, with January’s hot start easing the path. VIP and mass market reduce volatility risks, while visitation holds despite spend moderation. As Golden Week nears, daily rates signal underlying health trumping calendar noise.
Source: Asia Gaming Brief (AGB)
