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Smarkets, one of the UK’s leading prediction market platforms, is preparing to enter the United States—just as interest in event-based trading is hitting new highs.
For years, the company has operated somewhat in the shadow of Betfair in Britain, quietly building a solid user base of around one million accounts and generating roughly $32 million in annual revenue. Now, it’s looking across the Atlantic, where a sudden surge in prediction markets has created what could be its biggest opportunity yet.
A Boom That Came Fast
The US prediction market scene has changed dramatically in a short period of time. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted millions of users who are now placing money on real-world outcomes—everything from election results to global conflicts and major sports tournaments.
What really unlocked this growth was a legal shift in late 2024. A court decision forced regulators to allow political event contracts, putting them under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That move effectively legitimized the space and opened it up nationwide.
The impact has been huge. Monthly trading volumes have jumped from around $1.2 billion to an estimated $20 billion in just a year.
Smarkets now wants in.
A Long Time Coming
There’s a certain irony to the company’s US ambitions. Founder and CEO Jason Trost originally left New York to start Smarkets in London back in 2008—largely because prediction markets weren’t allowed in the US at the time.
What started as a niche idea, inspired by early political forecasting platforms, has grown into a serious business. Now, nearly two decades later, Trost is trying to bring that same concept back to the American market—this time with regulation finally catching up.
The company is currently waiting on approval from the CFTC, which it hopes will come through before the end of the year.
Not Betting on Everything
While some US platforms are pitching prediction markets as a way to trade on almost any aspect of life, Smarkets is taking a more grounded approach.
The company believes sports will be the real driver of long-term growth.
The logic is simple: political and news-based events don’t happen often enough to keep users engaged day after day. Sports, on the other hand, offer a constant stream of opportunities—matches, tournaments, and live events happening almost every hour.
It’s a model that has already worked in the UK, and Smarkets expects a similar pattern to emerge in the US.
Competing on Price and Experience
Smarkets also thinks it can stand out in a crowded market.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, its platform works as an exchange, meaning users trade against each other rather than betting against the house. In theory, that leads to better prices and lower margins.
The company is also leaning on its experience with strict UK regulations. Over the years, it has built systems for identity checks, anti-money laundering, and compliance—areas that are becoming increasingly important in the US as regulators take a closer look at the space.
Growing Pains for a New Industry
Despite the rapid growth, prediction markets are not without controversy.
There are rising concerns about manipulation, insider information, and the potential for gambling addiction—particularly among younger users. The idea of blending financial trading with betting has also made some regulators uneasy.
More legal challenges and new rules are likely on the way.
Still, Smarkets appears relatively comfortable navigating that environment. Coming from one of the most tightly regulated gambling markets in the world, the company is used to operating under scrutiny.
A Market Still Finding Its Shape
The US prediction market is growing fast, but it’s still evolving. Regulation is taking shape in real time, competition is heating up, and the line between investing and gambling remains blurry.
For Smarkets, the opportunity is clear—but so are the challenges.
If it can successfully enter the US, it won’t just be expanding into a new market. It will be stepping into one of the most dynamic and uncertain corners of the global betting and financial ecosystem.
