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Seaport Research Partners sees Macau’s February gross gaming revenue rising 10.5 percent from last year. They expect first-quarter GGR to jump 15.6 percent yearly. Full-year growth should hit 7 percent. Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky wrote this in a Monday note. He said easy comparisons in the first half of 2026 help a lot. Smooth money flows, and visa rules add to it. If overnight base mass play picks up, growth speeds up more. Operators with extra room gain market share.
Umansky noted strong February numbers could lead to bigger forecasts. He sees risks from GGR sustainability and China’s economy. Geopolitical issues worry too. But Macau stock valuations stay low. That makes risk-reward good for investors. They get paid well to take China risk, he added.
Premium play leads Macau’s post-COVID recovery. Base mass lags, especially overnight casino guests. Mid-tier play shows signs of improvement with high-end play since the summer.
Liquidity drives 2026 growth the most. Easy visa policy helps too. As long as money channels stay open, Macau meets high-end demand.
Operator Ratings Favor Big Capacity Players
Seaport gives Buy ratings to Las Vegas Sands and Sands China. MGM and MGM China get Neutral. Wynn, Wynn Macau, Melco, and Galaxy also Buy. SJM gets Sell. Umansky expects SJM to lose the most shares in Q4. It keeps dropping in 2026. Satellites shut down. Grand Lisboa struggles in tough competition.
Capacity leaders like Sands China and Galaxy win from market shifts. They have space for more players. SJM lacks that edge now.
Base Mass Recovery Key to Upside
Premium mass spend reached Golden Week levels in January, per Citigroup. Base mass stays weak overall. Overnight guests recover slowly. They bring steady revenue but not yet at full strength. Mid-tier upticks match premium gains since summer. That hints at broader pickup.
First-half easy comps set 2026 up well. Visa ease lets more visitors in. Liquidity keeps cash flowing to tables. Stronger base mass adds extra growth. It helps operators grab shares.
Risks Balanced by Cheap Valuations
China’s economy clouds the picture. Geopolitical tensions add pressure. GGR growth may not last forever. Still, Macau-linked stocks trade at low prices. Positive risk-reward draws buyers. Investors see upside worth the worry.
Seaport is ready to raise calls if February beats estimates. Base mass revival speeds forecasts higher. Capacity wins pay off long term.
Premium Strength Carries Momentum
Premium play powers Macau GGR since COVID. High-end demand stays firm. Base mass as next leg up. Liquidity and visas keep it going. The 2026 first quarter at 15.6 percent looks solid. Full year 7 percent modest but real.
February 10.5 percent forecast builds on January strength. Easy comps aid early gains. Operators position for share fights. Buy ratings go to those with room and marketing power. Neutral MGM group holds middle ground. SJM Sell reflects weak spots.
Market Share Battles Heat Up
SJM loses ground without satellites. Grand Lisboa can’t keep up. Sands China, Galaxy, Wynn, Melco gain from capacity. They pull premium and base mass. Umansky sees them as top picks.
Liquidity channels stay key. Open flows meet demands as visa policy eases entry. While base mass pickup lifts all boats, Seaport likes the setup despite risks. Valuations make entry cheap, and growth outlook holds firm for 2026.
Source: Asia Gaming Brief (AGB)
