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Super Bowl LX usually boosts confidence in betting stocks. This year, it didn’t.
Bloomberg said Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, had fallen for eight straight weeks, its longest slide in more than 20 years. It also said DraftKings was hovering near its lowest levels since 2023 after a major pullback from its high. The report added that prediction markets are now a key worry for investors.
Prediction markets became the weekend’s big question
The report described prediction markets, led by Kalshi, as the fresh overhang. These platforms offer sports-style contracts through a federal derivatives route, not the state sportsbook system.
Analyst Jordan Bender said he expected record trading volumes on prediction markets for Super Bowl weekend, even as legal sportsbook handle fell about 2% from last year. “A big piece of why we think Super Bowl handle will be down is that prediction markets are taking a bite out of that,” Bender said.
The issue is where the extra bets go
H2 Gambling Capital still expected a big Super Bowl for legal sportsbooks. It forecast $1.78 billion in regulated handle, with New York leading at roughly $172 million.
However, prediction markets didn’t erase sportsbook demand. Instead, they changed the shape of growth. Bloomberg said prediction markets may still take a large share of the weekend’s growth. It cited estimates of $630 million in prediction-market bets tied to the Super Bowl. That would mean much of the year-over-year increase in overall betting activity would flow outside traditional sportsbook apps.
Expansion slowed, so growth got harder
The easy growth phase for sportsbooks has also cooled down markedly.
No states are rushing to make sportsbooks legal yet. Missouri was the only new state where Super Bowl betting was legal for the first time this year.
Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey wrote in a Jan. 29 note that the Super Bowl outlook now reflects a shift away from expansion-led growth, with most states that had a clear path already live.
App data suggested fans were clicking elsewhere
Mobile trends helped explain why prediction markets grabbed so much attention. App downloads was the main driving factor. App analytics suggests Kalshi’s January downloads ran well ahead of FanDuel and DraftKings. It also cited data indicating that about 10% of DraftKings users also used Kalshi in January.
Even though DraftKings and FanDuel launched prediction-style products in December, their combined January downloads trailed far behind Kalshi’s.
Operators split on whether prediction markets are hurting
Some executives downplayed the impact. BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt told Bloomberg he could not identify any impact that could be attributed to prediction markets. He also said the newer platforms were drawing more “sharps,” the skilled bettors sportsbooks often like less.
BetMGM’s own recent update showed strong momentum, including FY2025 net revenue of $2.8 billion and a 63% year-over-year increase in online sports revenue.
What comes next after Super Bowl LX
Super Bowl weekends usually get judged by handle and headlines. This year’s build-up added another test: how much volume prediction markets can pull when the spotlight is brightest, and whether that momentum holds once the game fades from the front page.
Source: Yahoo Finance
