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Portugal’s regulator has ordered prediction market operator Polymarket to leave the country after unusual trading activity during the presidential election raised alarms. More than €4 million was staked in the final hours before results were announced, with odds swinging sharply just as private exit polls began to circulate.
The Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) ruled that the platform’s operations breach national laws that forbid political betting. It ordered Polymarket to shut down and face blocking measures inside the country.
Concerns of insider trading on national election led to ban
António José Seguro entered Portugal’s presidential election with Polymarket giving him a 60% chance of victory, while rival André Ventura stood at 30%. But by 6 PM, an hour before polls closed, Seguro’s odds had jumped to 96%, hitting 100% once official projections confirmed the win.
Markets tracking the next President of the Republic showed the same sharp swings, according to reports from Portuguese outlet Renascença. At 6:30 PM, Seguro’s chances of reaching Belém Palace shot from 68.6% to 93.2% in less than an hour. Cotrim de Figueiredo’s odds collapsed during that window, falling from 22% to just 2.5%. By 8 PM, when voters first heard the results, Seguro’s probability had settled at 95%.
Trading volumes also rose at the time, hitting €5 million between 6 PM and 8 PM. The main presidential market alone topped $103 million, with side markets adding nearly $18.1 million more.
Due to the sudden accuracy of bettors, regulators concluded that leaked information had led to the trading rush. The runoff between both candidates is set for February 8, but Polymarket will no longer be available to Portuguese users then.
Another market lost for Polymarket
Portugal’s regulator says it only learned of Polymarket “very recently,” and has now deemed its activity illegal under national rules.
“The website is not authorized to offer betting in Portugal, and under national law, betting on political events or happenings, whether national or international, is not permitted,” it stated.
The agency told the platform to stop operating in Portugal within 48 hours and, when the site stayed live into Monday, moved to have network providers block access.
This adds Portugal to a growing list of places shutting the door on Polymarket. The platform is banned in Ukraine, Singapore, Romania, and France, and faces blocks in countries including Australia, Belgium, Germany, the UK, Iran, and North Korea.
It also continues to face pressure in the US, with a recent lawsuit from Nevada. Concerns about insider trading have risen after high-profile trades tied to geopolitics, including Polymarket’s near‑perfect call on President Trump’s 2024 victory.
Despite the hurdles and exists, the platform’s December 2025 figures show politics betting up 28%, with more than $4.3 billion wagered.
Source: Cryptonews
