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Prediction market Polymarket has climbed to No. 1 in Apple’s US free sports app chart on Monday, despite its full US relaunch still being ahead.
Currently offering a limited, sports-only US beta, the Polymarket app briefly surpassed FanDuel and DraftKings in the sports category, following Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan’s, profile on 60 Minutes, as he states that his prediction market is “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.”
Around the same time, Polymarket also confirmed a deal for an investment of up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, valuing the business at approximately $8 billion.
From CFTC penalty to regulated comeback
Polymarket’s resurgence in the US market follows a three-year regulatory detour.
In 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined the platform $1.4 million for operating an unregistered trading venue.
And, in part settlement, Polymarket blocked US users and shifted operations offshore.
Since then, the company has implemented a structured return policy. Earlier this year, it acquired QCX LLC and QC Clearing for approximately $112 million. Both entities already held CFTC licences as a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.
Today, Polymarket runs a restricted US product with sports-only contracts and fiat integration. The team has pushed several App Store updates in recent weeks as it tests pricing, UX, and flows.
ICE money, media spotlight, and a political tilt
According to sources, most believe that Intercontinental Exchange’s planned $2 billion investment gives Polymarket a heavyweight partner that already operates the world’s most influential trading venues. The move instantly elevates the prediction-market startup from crypto curiosity to a potential fixture in mainstream finance.
At the same time, Coplan has been unmistakably courting Washington. Polymarket recently added Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic adviser. And during his televised interview, Coplan praised the current administration as “pro-innovation, pro-crypto, pro-Polymarket,” saying he needs guidance navigating Washington as a “young entrepreneur.”
Admittedly, this collaboration with ICE and the TV profile has brought Polymarket into the mainstream view before its US platform is fully live.
A crowded lane: Kalshi, FanDuel, and DraftKings
But Polymarket is not returning to an empty field, especially in the sports industry.
Rival Kalshi has shifted heavily into sports this year. Since September, sports contracts have driven approximately $11 billion in volume, or roughly 95% of activity on the exchange over that period.
Meanwhile, FanDuel and DraftKings are preparing their own prediction-style products to match, or even surpass, Polymarket. They position these markets as a natural extension of sports betting, not as a separate asset class.
Polymarket, by contrast, still brands itself as “markets on everything.” Users trade shares in outcomes rather than betting against a house.
Polymarket, as CEO Shayne Coplan reiterated during his 60 Minutes segment with correspondent Graham Messick, allows users to wager on a wide range of topics, from elections to celebrity news.
Coplan has repeatedly criticised traditional sportsbooks for “scam-like” pricing and limits, arguing that order-book markets offer tighter spreads and more transparent odds.
Regulation: derivatives, gambling, or something in between?
Despite the recent progress, the rulebook currently remains unsettled.
Several US states have urged the CFTC to restrict sports-linked event markets. They argue that contracts on game results resemble sports bets and should fall under state gambling laws. On the other hand, prediction platforms disagree, arguing that they run financial markets that fall under derivatives regulation.
Coplan made a similar argument earlier this year when he accused regulated sportsbooks of using opaque tactics and poor pricing. He framed Polymarket as a venue where traders own “shares” in outcomes, rather than placing bets in a casino.
In Congress, the incoming CFTC chair nominee has hinted that he may ultimately look to the US Supreme Court for a final decision on whether sports contracts are considered gambling or derivatives. Until then, both exchanges and sportsbooks operate with some legal uncertainty.
Source: Legal Sports Report
