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Prediction markets have become a hot topic in several countries, particularly following the World Cup, where many users turned to these platforms as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks. In Norway—arguably one of the last remaining gambling monopolies in Europe, alongside Iceland—prediction markets have recently climbed high on the political agenda.
One could argue that Norway has been somewhat behind the curve. Only recently have newspapers across the country begun covering prediction markets extensively, both positively and negatively. Norway’s gambling regulator, the Norwegian Gambling Authority (Lotteritilsynet), has until now remained relatively quiet on the issue.
Surprisingly, Lotteritilsynet has not published any information about prediction markets on its website and has largely stayed out of the public debate, despite the extensive media coverage. On May 25, an individual submitted a question to the regulator asking whether Polymarket is legal in Norway. The authority responded on July 2.
In its reply, Lotteritilsynet stated:
“Under Norwegian law, gambling is defined by three criteria: participation requires a stake, participants can win a prize of economic value, and the outcome is wholly or partly determined by chance. In our view, prediction markets are platforms that facilitate betting. The bets may concern anything from politics to sporting events. Our assessment is that these markets contain elements of gambling and therefore fall within the legal definition of gambling in Norway. It is the party that offers or assists in offering gambling without a licence in Norway that is in breach of the Gambling Act. The same applies to anyone who markets or assists in marketing unlicensed gambling. This means that it is not a criminal offence to be a user or player.”
This Could Have Implications for Norwegian Users
Norway enforces its gambling legislation through several mechanisms. One of the most effective has been the so-called “payment blocking regime.” Under this system, banks are required to block payments to and from gambling operators that are not licensed in Norway.
These restrictions can apply both directly and indirectly. For example, some banks have blocked transfers between customers’ Revolut accounts and their Norwegian bank accounts. Similarly, when users withdraw cryptocurrency through an exchange, the funds may be blocked if the bank determines that they originate from an unlicensed gambling operator.
Prediction Markets Set to Reach Parliament After the Summer
A political party has introduced a proposal to establish a regulatory framework for prediction markets. The proposal is expected to be debated in the Norwegian Parliament after the summer recess.
Most political parties in Norway remain committed to preserving the country’s gambling monopoly. As a result, it is likely that Parliament will provide a more definitive position on the legal status of prediction markets later this year.
