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A new legislative proposal before the New York State Assembly could significantly reshape the state’s approach to prediction markets. The bill, Assembly Bill 9251 — formally titled the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events (ORACLE) Act — seeks to define, regulate, and heavily restrict the operation of speculative markets tied to future events, including sports and politics.
Broad Ban on Event-Based Prediction Markets
The most impactful provision of the ORACLE Act would ban several major categories of prediction markets for New York users. This includes those based on catastrophic events, political outcomes, deaths, securities, and athletic events. The bill specifically states that platforms “shall not permit New York users to open a speculative position” on these markets.
However, there is a notable exception: prediction markets related to broader outcomes, such as the overall winner of a sports tournament, would still be allowed. The restrictions instead focus on markets linked to individual games or events and specific occurrences within those events — such as the outcome of a single play, match, or player action.
The bill also introduces strict consumer protection requirements for any permitted platforms. These include an age limit of 21 years, mandatory self-exclusion tools, clear display of responsible gambling hotlines, and transparent disclosure of settlement sources used to determine outcomes.
To curb potentially harmful engagement, the bill would also prohibit credit card deposits and gift certificate sales linked to prediction markets.
Advertising and Enforcement Measures Tightened
Advertising restrictions represent another key component of the ORACLE Act. Platforms would be barred from promoting their services to individuals under 21 and from using terms such as “risk-free” in marketing materials. Push notifications to promote bonuses or markets without user participation would also be banned. All advertisements must feature responsible gambling messages for their entire duration.
Further, the legislation forbids partnerships between prediction market providers and companies engaged in gaming or liquidity services — a move seemingly aimed at preventing crossover between sportsbooks and prediction platforms. This could directly affect operators like DraftKings and FanDuel, both of which have expressed interest in developing prediction market products.
Violations of the law could carry significant penalties. Civil fines may reach up to $10,000 per infraction, and repeat offenders could face penalties as high as $50,000 per violation. The state attorney general would also have the power to seek injunctions and shut down non-compliant platforms, with ongoing breaches punishable by fines of up to $1 million per day.
The ORACLE Act aims to clearly separate prediction markets from gambling and securities trading while safeguarding consumers in digital speculative environments. However, critics have argued that the proposal may overreach, potentially stifling innovation in the emerging prediction market sector.
The bill is currently under review by the New York State Assembly’s Standing Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection.
Source: Next
