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On Tuesday in Washington, Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar unveiled the BETS OFF Act, a proposal aimed at banning prediction market contracts tied to government and military decisions.
The move follows recent cases where traders profited from geopolitical crises, including the joint strikes carried out by the U.S. and Israel against Iran and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The bill would prohibit wagers on “government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.” Murphy explained the goal of the proposal, stating,
“Our legislation is pretty simple. It simply says that these markets cannot allow people to make bets on government decision-making and frankly on other instances where there is one single individual who controls and knows the outcome of a market.”
The measure also seeks to close loopholes by amending existing gambling laws. Because many of these contracts are traded on offshore platforms, the measure would block payment systems linked to illegal sites and impose criminal penalties on anyone in the U.S. who promotes, manages, or supervises such businesses.
“I think it’s really important that there are certain matters that are not monetised by prediction markets,” Murphy told reporters, according to Al Jazeera.
Lawmakers continue to target prediction markets
Murphy and Casar’s proposal goes beyond government actions, stretching into areas where outcomes can be influenced by a small group of people.
Their bill would block wagers on things like award shows, where insiders often know results ahead of time. Murphy stated, “The people who benefit in these markets are always the powerful. The people who know who know who is going to perform at the Super Bowl, the people who know what words the president is going to use in a speech are very powerful people.”
Casar added that he is not against gambling itself, but stressed that their goal is to create a fair system for all.
The push is part of a wider effort in Congress to control prediction markets.
Senator Richard Blumenthal has introduced legislation to add consumer protections, including age checks and limits on advertising to minors. Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar have proposed a ban on elected officials profiting from these markets.
At the state level, Minnesota lawmakers want to outlaw prediction markets entirely, while Arizona has filed criminal charges against Kalshi, arguing the platform violates gambling laws.
Almost 60% of voters oppose government-related contracts
A new survey from Data for Progress shows that 59$ of voters reject the idea of wagering on potential government actions. Opposition cuts across party lines, with 60% of Democrats, 61% of Independents, and 57% of Republicans saying they are against it.
Support grows even stronger when the question turns to elected officials. Two in three voters, or 67%, believe the president, vice president, and members of Congress should be barred from using prediction markets. That view is shared widely, including by 63% of Republicans.
82% of voters also said they were alarmed by terrorism-related contracts, while 78% expressed the same about assassination markets. These numbers suggests that lawmakers might actually have the public on their side in the push against prediction markets tied to government decisions.
“We shouldn’t be living in a country where someone is sitting in the situation room, making decisions on whether to invade or to bomb, decisions about war and peace, life and death, that those decisions could be driven by the fact that they have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the decision,” Casar added.
