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A new proposal in the House of Reps aims to stop members of Congress, along with their spouses and dependents, from profiting through prediction markets.
Introduced by Rep. Bryan Steil, the measure is formally titled the “Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act.” It amends chapter 131 of title 5 of the United States Code to create clear restrictions on trading contracts tied to political outcomes, government actions, or policy decisions.
The bill reflects growing concern that lawmakers could misuse inside knowledge gained from their positions to benefit financially.
“The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information,” Steil stated in a press release following the bill’s filing. “The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen. This legislation is critical to restoring the public’s trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”
Bill introduces fines and restrictions for violators
The bill defines “covered individuals” as members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children. None of these individuals would be permitted to enter into contracts or transactions that hinge on political outcomes, government actions, or events connected to their congressional service.
The restriction applies regardless of whether the event is directly tied to their official duties. To ensure clarity, the supervising ethics office is tasked with issuing interpretive guidance on terms not explicitly defined in the legislation.
Any covered individual found trading in prediction markets would face a fee calculated as either $2,000 or ten percent of the value of the transaction, whichever is greater.
In addition, any net gains from the prohibited trade would be forfeited. Importantly, lawmakers cannot use official allowances, office expense accounts, or campaign contributions to pay these penalties. All collected fees would be deposited into the Treasury’s general fund as miscellaneous receipts.
The supervising ethics office would oversee enforcement and could refer cases involving former members to the Department of Justice if they resign or retire before paying the required penalties.
The law would take effect 180 days after enactment, giving Congress time to adjust to the new rules. According to CNBC, the bill has the support of both House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump.
Congress continue to stand against prediction markets
Steil’s proposal comes weeks after the Senate moved unanimously to block its own members, staff, and officials from betting on prediction markets.
Lawmakers warned that such activity could resemble insider trading and even pose national security risks. Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat from Michigan and former C.I.A. analyst, cautioned that insider trading on these platforms represents “an operational risk.”
The measure was sponsored by Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, who stressed the importance of integrity in public service. “Serving in Congress is an honor, not a side hustle, Americans deserve to know that their leaders are here for the right reason,” he said.
Some lawmakers have gone further. Senator John Curtis of Utah welcomed the Senate’s decision at the time but argued it should extend beyond Congress. He then joined forces with Representative Slotkin and Senator Todd Young of Indiana on a bill that would ban prediction market betting for all government officials, including the president and vice president.
These moves reflect a nationwide push across Congress and state regulators to clamp down on prediction markets, alongside other bills targeting insider trading and sports betting activities.
