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Dutch State Secretary for Taxation Eugène Heijnen has confirmed that the government will not introduce new measures to address a projected drop in online gambling revenue, despite previous tax hikes.
During a parliamentary session last week, Heijnen indicated that there are no plans to adjust the current tax strategy. According to Casino Nieuws, he noted that the tax earnings from gambling are expected to align with the forecasts provided by the Dutch Gaming Authority (KSA) in a recent report.
“It is true that the estimate for revenue has been revised downwards this year,” Heijnen said. “This picture is broadly consistent with the expectations communicated by the KSA in a recent report.”
Dutch regulators expecting revenue drop
In an August report, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) predicted a significant decline in online gambling revenue due to the recent tax hike in the Netherlands.
The regulator estimates that this increase will lead to a drop of around €40 million ($47 million) in revenue, a sharp contrast to earlier projections that had anticipated a €100 million rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025.
The revenue downturn is attributed to a two-phase implementation of the new gambling tax. The first phase, which took effect on January 1, 2025, raised the tax rate from 30.5% to 34.2% of GGR. The second phase, set to take effect on January 1, 2026, will further increase the rate to 37.8%.
Recent restrictive measures responsible for shortfall
The Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers (VNLOK) also released its own report last month, which revealed that the increased tax rate could lead to a significant decrease in tax revenue, potentially creating a €200 million shortfall in 2025.
This estimate is based on projections indicating that gross gaming revenue in the first half of 2025 will drop by 25% compared to the previous year.
VNLOK attributed this anticipated decline to a series of new restrictive measures implemented over the past year. These measures include bans on untargeted advertising and sponsorships, new deposit limits, and the heightened tax burden. The group has urged the government to reconsider the current tax framework.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance had previously anticipated an annual increase of €200 million in gambling tax revenue between 2025 and 2028 due to the tax hikes.
Laws will not be amended
In the brief parliamentary discussion, Heijen acknowledged that tax revenue from gambling, especially in the online sector, is falling short of expectations. He attributed this decline to increasingly strict regulations, but made it clear that there would be no changes to existing laws as a result of this situation.
“In accordance with budgetary rules, windfalls and shortfalls in tax revenue are reflected in the balance after policy is adopted,” he explained. “Therefore, the revenue shortfall from this perspective is not a compensatory policy.”
Heijen, who recently stepped into his role in early September, took over from Tjebbe Van Oostenbruggen, who resigned at the end of August. This change came amid a wave of departures, including that of Gambling Minister Teun Struycken and Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp, the latter stepping down over the controversial decision to block sanctions against Israel amid the ongoing conflict in Palestine.
Source: iGaming Business
