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The land-based casino market in the Philippines is still under significant pressure, and that weakness is likely to continue through 2026, according to Morgan Stanley managing director and head of Asian gaming and lodging Praveen Choudhary. He said the market is still struggling, with returns having fallen sharply from levels seen a few years ago.
Choudhary said the Philippines used to be a very lucrative market, but that over the past couple of years returns have come down significantly. He added that declining arrivals from South Korea and China, two of the country’s main source markets, have weighed on performance even after the government eased visa rules for mainland Chinese tourists.
Weak Visitor Flow
Choudhary noted in a speech on the first day of G2E Asia 2026 at the Venetian Macao hotel that there was a double-digit decline in visitors from South Korea and China for the first quarter of the year. As per his statement, the reduction in the number of tourists visiting, along with other factors such as the rise of online betting and other global developments, has impacted the business activities of the organization in the country.
Also, he does not expect the next year to be any better than the previous one for the market. The businessman believes that conditions remain difficult, and there is no reason to believe that a turn in fortunes will happen soon. The expo continues till Thursday, May 14.
According to official statistics released last month, the gross gaming revenue earned by licensed land-based casinos in the Philippines in the full year 2025 fell 9.6% to PHP182.50 billion (US$2.97 billion). The figures underline the strain facing the sector as it works through weaker visitor traffic and continued competition from online gaming.
Japan And New Builds
Choudhary also used his presentation to discuss other land-based casino markets in Asia, including Japan. He expressed doubts that MGM Osaka, the country’s first legal casino property and currently under construction, will be able to open in 2030 as planned by promoter MGM Osaka Corp.
MGM Osaka Corp is a joint venture between MGM Resorts International, Japan-based Orix Corp, and other minority local investors. Furthermore, Choudhary stated that there were other discussions regarding the opening of two additional casino establishments within the country, although he cast doubt on whether this would be possible by then. He cited the issuance of a national cabinet decree dated March 10, where the application period for the second round of bids for integrated resorts was set from May to November 2027.
He said people should not spend time on that thesis and suggested that such projects take a long time to materialize. His comments reflected caution about how quickly Japan’s gaming market may expand beyond the current project pipeline.
UAE Outlook Remains Strong
By contrast, Choudhary was upbeat about the United Arab Emirates, where Wynn Al Marjan Island is being developed by Wynn Resorts Ltd. He highlighted the project’s current monopoly position and said the market makes sense because luxury is the key driver.
Another point he highlighted was that wider regional trends would play an important role, particularly regarding travel flows to the Middle East. This was mentioned by him in connection with the existing regional conflict between the US and Iran. Last month, Wynn Resorts indicated that it anticipated some delay in the opening of the Wynn Al Marjan complex, which was scheduled to open in spring 2027.
This project was estimated at US$5.1 billion, of which Wynn Resorts has a 40% share, was still among the most closely followed new projects in the region.
Macau And Regional Recovery
According to Choudhary, the entire gaming sector in Asia had already returned to pre-COVID levels by 2025. Additionally, according to Choudhary, Macau casino companies are presently more concerned about improving their EBITDA margins, although it is evident that VIP gaming has staged its resurgence in the city and is outperforming the mass-market segment in terms of growth.
His statement implies an uneven picture in the Asian gaming industry, with some markets still facing challenges, whereas others are drawing in more attention.
Source: GGR Asia
