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Macau’s casinos are expected to grow faster than their rivals in Singapore and Las Vegas in 2026 when it comes to gross gaming revenue (GGR), but profit growth is likely to lag behind. Banking group Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note that it forecasts Macau industry GGR to rise by around 6% year-on-year this year, compared with roughly 1% growth projected for both Singapore and Las Vegas. The GGR for Macau in 2025 has already risen by 9.1 percent year over year to MOP247.40 billion (US$30.63 billion), as per official figures.
However, Morgan Stanley has predicted that earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) in Macau will increase by merely 2 percent in 2026, which is less than market expectations and reflects a downgrade from the performance in 2025, with cost pressures continuing to pose a threat to earnings, which could trigger negative earnings revisions during the course of the year.
Cost Pressures and Growth in the Second-Half
The analysts argued that cost pressure in Macau is now structural, especially because of the market’s focus on premium mass players. They highlighted “reinvestment” costs, such as incentives and promotions for mid-tier customers, as a key drag on margins. Morgan Stanley pointed to 3 main reasons why it sees Macau industry EBITDA rising by just 2% this year: an expected slowdown in GGR growth in the second half of 2026 due to base effects and continued weakness in base mass business; persistently high levels of promotion allowances; and ongoing non-gaming expenses.
Those non-gaming costs are tied in part to the commitments Macau’s 6 operators made to the government as part of their current 10-year gaming concessions that began in January 2023. Taking these factors together, Morgan Stanley said it is cutting its view on Macau gaming from “attractive” to “in-line”, as it now anticipates lower year-on-year GGR growth from May and even negative EBITDA growth in the second and third quarters.
Singapore Volumes Rising, But EBITDA to Dip
Morgan Stanley has also commented on Singapore’s 2-casino market, which comprises Resorts World Sentosa, operated by Genting Singapore Ltd, and Marina Bay Sands, operated by Las Vegas Sands Corp. The bank has predicted that gaming volumes in Singapore will continue to increase in 2026 by a mid-single-digit percentage, driven by sustained strength in Marina Bay Sands as well as the opening of new amenities in Resorts World Sentosa.
However, the bank has not predicted Genting Singapore to gain market share from Marina Bay Sands, as it has been unable to do so in recent years. The bank has further stated that Marina Bay Sands reported unusually high hold rates in 2025, which are likely to normalise in 2026. As a result, Morgan Stanley projects that the impact of lower hold will offset volume growth, leaving the overall Singapore industry GGR flat and leading to an estimated 1% year-on-year decline in EBITDA in 2026.
Source: GGR Asia
