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Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue, or GGR, is forecast to rise 12% year-on-year to MOP20.5 billion, or $2.55 billion, in September, according to Citigroup. This projection comes despite a seasonally softer start to the month ahead of China’s National Day Golden Week.
The brokerage estimated that GGR reached about MOP3.8 billion, or $473 million, during the first six days of September. This translates to an average daily run rate of approximately MOP633 million, or $78.8 million.
The daily figure was about 10% below August’s average of MOP706 million, or $87.9 million. However, it remained 4% higher than the MOP610 million, or $76 million, recorded per day in September 2025.
Citigroup attributed the sequential slowdown to September traditionally being a shoulder month before the National Day holiday period in early October. This pattern is consistent with historical trends in Macau’s gaming market.
VIP and Mass-Market Performance
Based on industry sources, VIP gaming volume fell between 8% and 10% from August, while mass-market GGR declined by between 10% and 12%. The VIP hold rate was described as largely normal.
The decline is due to the seasonal effects associated with the month of September in Macau. There are a few holidays and events during the month of September, making the level of gaming activity slow down until October.
Despite the early-month slowdown, the brokerage maintained its September GGR forecast. Citigroup cited Macau’s upcoming concert and event calendar as a key factor supporting its positive outlook for the remainder of the month.
Events Calendar Boosts Outlook
The schedule includes performances by BABYMONSTER at The Venetian Arena, Super Junior-83z at Studio City Event Center, and TWS at The Londoner Arena. These concerts are expected to draw visitors and stimulate gaming activity across the city’s integrated resorts.
Alongside the music events, the World Table Tennis Champions Macao 2026 event sponsored by Galaxy Macau is also on the calendar. Sporting events of this scale typically attract both local and international visitors, contributing to higher foot traffic and gaming spend.
Citigroup’s decision to maintain its forecast despite the soft start underscores the importance of these events in driving September’s overall performance. The brokerage appears confident that the latter half of the month will see stronger activity as these events take place.
August GGR Context
August casino GGR in Macau stood at MOP21.89 billion or US$2.72 billion, recording a yearly decrease of 1.2% while increasing by 8.1% compared to the previous month. This was a good base for September as the market would enter what is usually its slow season.
This decline in August on a yearly basis is a result of the difficulties being faced by the Macau gaming market, which includes competition from other regional casinos and changing customer preferences. However, the increase on a month-on-month comparison is a good indicator that the market still has resilience.
September is projected to record a yearly growth of 12%. The combination of events, holidays, and pent-up demand could help offset the seasonal dip seen in the first week of the month.
Market Dynamics at Play
The interaction between the VIP and mass market continues to be an important factor in the gaming scene in Macau. Even with the softening of the levels in the VIP segment, the mass market is still vital for revenue growth.
Citigroup’s analysis highlights the importance of monitoring both segments as the month progresses. Any significant deviation from the expected trends could impact the overall GGR forecast for September.
Source: Asia Gaming Brief
