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What if the territory’s weakest month could actually deliver the strongest quarterly performance since 2019?
Casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau for the first seven days of September stood at MOP4.45 billion (US$554.4 million), representing a daily average of MOP635 million, according to JP Morgan industry checks.
Despite being softer than July and August’s MOP714 million daily run-rates, the performance still suggests double-digit growth from last September’s MOP575 million per day, indicating the sequential slowdown falls within normal seasonality patterns.
September’s seasonal weakness masks underlying strength
Sometimes the calendar lies about what’s really happening in the market.
JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian noted that September has historically been among the weakest months of the year in Macau in terms of GGR performance.
However, the daily average of MOP635 million still points to robust year-on-year growth, with the sequential slowdown expected due to typical seasonal patterns rather than underlying market weakness.
Brokerage forecasts 10-13% growth despite summer slowdown
The mathematics of recovery don’t always follow seasonal expectations.
JP Morgan continues to forecast that Macau’s GGR in September will grow between 10% and 13% year-on-year, to between MOP19.0 billion and MOP19.5 billion.
This projection comes after August’s casino GGR rose by 12.2% year-on-year, reaching nearly MOP22.16 billion according to data from the city’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
Third quarter could reach highest level since 2019
The territory is approaching numbers not seen since before the pandemic changed everything.
If realised, such growth would drive third-quarter 2025 GGR to “the highest level in 23 quarters”, up between 14% and 15% year-on-year, to about MOP63 billion and MOP64 billion, the analysts wrote.
This would represent a significant milestone in Macau’s recovery, showing sustained momentum beyond the immediate post-pandemic bounce.
August performance sets new post-pandemic record
The latest monthly tally proves momentum isn’t just a summer fluke.
Casino GGR in August marked the best monthly performance since January 2020, just before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The latest monthly tally of MOP22.16 billion was slightly up compared with July’s MOP22.13 billion, demonstrating consistent strength across the summer months when gaming venues typically experience their strongest performance periods.
Market dynamics suggest sustainable recovery trajectory
The fundamentals supporting growth extend beyond seasonal tourism patterns.
The sustained performance reflects broader market dynamics including improved visitor confidence, stabilised regional economic conditions, and enhanced casino operations following infrastructure investments.
The consistency of growth across multiple months suggests the recovery has moved beyond initial reopening effects to establish a more sustainable trajectory for the gaming sector.
Source: GGR Asia
