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Macau’s casinos entered February with a softer pace in gaming activity, yet projections for the combined January-February period still point to solid year-on-year growth. Banking group Citi, drawing on industry sources, reported that casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 8 days of February was about 14 percent below January’s average daily run rate, even as the market heads into the crucial Chinese New Year period.
Early February Dip Ahead of Chinese New Year
Citi estimated that from February 1 to 8, Macau’s casinos generated around MOP5.0 billion in GGR, or roughly $621.1 million. That translates to an average of about MOP625 million per day, compared with January’s pace of around MOP730 million daily and roughly MOP705 million per day in February 2025. The bank attributed this slowdown to a pattern that has appeared not long before Chinese New Year, in which visitor and gaming volumes moderate slightly before the peak holiday period.
This is in stark contrast to the comments made by Kenneth Feng Xiaofeng, who is the CEO of MGM China Holdings Limited. He states that in the current market state, the visitor numbers do not really drop significantly, even if the days leading to a prominent celebration such as Chinese New Year are not taken into account.
VIP and Mass Segments Show Month-on-Month Declines
Behind the headline numbers, both VIP and mass-market play showed noticeable month-on-month declines in early February. Citi’s commentary, again citing industry contacts, indicated that VIP betting volumes were down by about 12 percent to 14 percent compared with January, while mass GGR slipped roughly 11 percent to 13 percent over the same period. Despite this, the bank reported that the VIP hold percentage, or the percentage of wagers retained by casinos, was more or less in line with usual levels.
These developments indicate that the slowdown is more of a pullback than an unusual trend in win rates. With both segments moderating simultaneously, the early February results illustrate how sensitive the Macau gaming market remains to calendar and holiday-related factors.
February Forecast Unchanged Despite Slow Start
Despite the weaker opening stretch of the month, Citi kept its forecast for Macau’s February 2026 GGR intact. The bank continues to project that casinos will generate around MOP20.5 billion in GGR for the month, equivalent to about a 4 percent increase from a year earlier. To achieve this total, average daily GGR for the remaining days of February would have to come in at around MOP775 million, reflecting a pick-up in business as soon as the Chinese New Year celebrations get underway.
This year’s Chinese New Year celebration takes place on February 17, with a 9-day public holiday in the Chinese mainland during the period from February 15. This extended holiday period is expected to attract substantial visitor traffic from Macau’s traditional core market, thus contributing to an improvement in both mass and VIP gaming business after the initial slowdown preceding the holiday period.
Two-Month Performance Signals Ongoing Recovery
Looking beyond February alone, Citi also kept its outlook steady for the combined January–February performance. After taking into consideration the different dates for the Chinese New Year this year compared with last year, the bank’s projection for GGR over the 2 months is MOP43.1 billion. This number indicates a 13.5 percent increase from last year, which indicates that the overall recovery of the gaming industry in Macau is still on track despite the slowdown in early February.
For comparison, the Chinese New Year in calendar year 2025 occurred on January 29, with an 8-day holiday period in mainland China from January 28 to February 4. The shift of the main holiday window deeper into February 2026 means that a larger share of festive-driven GGR will be recorded later in the current month. As the city moves through the holiday period, investors and operators alike will be watching closely to see if the anticipated rebound in daily revenue matches these expectations and keeps Macau’s growth story intact.
Source: GGR Asia
