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Macau’s casino industry appears to maintain its positive trend this September, with brokerages estimating a year-on-year gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of approximately 13 percent. Such a positive outlook comes after a robust August performance, with the casinos within the territory recording record-high revenues since the pandemic struck, which shows that an upturn within the industry is taking place.
August Sets the Stage for September
In August, Macau GGR hit MOP 22.16 billion, equivalent to roughly US$2.76 billion. That was not only a 12.2 percent increase from the same month in 2024 but also a new post-pandemic high, beating July’s previous best. That growth has been enough to prompt analysts to bump up their estimates, and double-digit growth is now expected to carry on through the second half of 2025.
Analyst Projections and Market Dynamics
Investment companies have issued detailed estimates expecting that September’s GGR will be up around 13 percent year-on-year, although it should dip slightly from August’s high. For example, Deutsche Bank expects September revenue to rise to around US$2.45 billion, a fall of just 11.2 percent compared to August but nonetheless a significant advance on September last year.
Seaport Research Partners resonates with this, reaffirming that although expansion is anticipated, weather conditions may remain challenging, reminding everyone of last year’s typhoon-related disruptions. Their projections estimate a 13 percent increase year-on-year for September, though lower by around 12 percent from the preceding month.
Segment Performance and Market Composition
One of the highlights in these forecasts is the performance gap among various market segments. The premium mass market segment is persisting with strength and contributing meaningfully to Macau’s overall GGR recovery. Still, the base mass market, particularly overnight regular visitors, continues to be rather subdued. There are cautious indications of the mid-tier segment turning around, which, combined with premiums, contributed to pushing summer revenues higher.
Year-to-date figures indicate that combined GGR is at about 82 percent of the same period of 2019, with mass market revenues running above pre-pandemic levels at around 119 percent of 2019. VIP revenues, however, are significantly lower at about 21 percent, with premium mass gaming considerably outperforming 2019, and base mass falling a little behind.
Analysts Savor Ongoing Growth as Macau Casino Market Climbs Back
Industry observers, such as JP Morgan analysts, see Macau as being firmly on an “upcycle” trend, driven by good regional market conditions and liquidity drivers, especially in Hong Kong. Overall view is that this will continue to be the case, underpinning further development in gaming revenues in the near future.
This continued growth in Macau casino revenue is a testament to the strength of its gaming industry as it recovers in a post-pandemic environment. Through the continued market, everyone will be watching how various segments of consumers hold up and if outside influences, such as weather disruption, could possibly have some effect on performance leading into the final months of the year.
Source: GGR Asia
