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April’s gross gaming revenue in Macau saw an increase of 5.5% year-on-year to MOP19.89 billion ($2.47 billion). However, it did not meet early expectations due to low VIP hold, according to Vitaly Umansky from Seaport Research Partners.
April Result
The April figure fell short of both Bloomberg Asia’s consensus, which had pointed to 6.5% growth, and Seaport’s earlier estimate of more than 11%. Umansky said hold-adjusted growth would likely have reached 10% to 11%, suggesting the underlying market was stronger than the reported number indicated.
He said April GGR was negatively affected by low VIP hold. Premium play remained solid, but VIP performance was softer, particularly because of the lower hold during the month. That mix helped explain why the market came in below expectations even though gaming activity remained broadly stable.
On a month-on-month basis, April GGR declined from March. Average daily revenue was estimated at MOP663 million ($82.4 million), below the first-quarter average and consistent with the impact of weaker hold. Seaport said MGM and Galaxy were the biggest month-on-month share gainers, while Sands and Melco likely lost share.
Demand Indicators
Despite the softer headline result, Seaport said underlying demand indicators remained stable. Visitation growth was estimated at around 10% year-on-year in April, and premium segments continued to support the market’s overall performance.
That suggests Macau’s recovery is still being driven by stronger-end customer activity even as VIP hold fluctuates from month to month. The firm’s note pointed to a market that remains supported by premium demand, but not yet fully balanced across all segments.
The report also said base mass, particularly overnight visitors, remains relatively weaker than before the pandemic. That continues to leave Macau’s recovery dependent on premium mass and VIP business for the bulk of its growth.
May Outlook
Seaport anticipates an increase in May’s gaming revenues by 8.5%. The increase is anticipated because of the 5-day May Day holiday that will occur between May 1st and May 5th.
Umansky also said some customer trips may have been deferred from April into May, which could help improve results in the current month. That would provide another source of support for revenue after April’s softer-than-expected reading.
The outlook for May remains more optimistic than April, but still depends on the strength of holiday traffic and customer spending. Seaport’s forecast suggests the market could see a clearer lift if travel and leisure demand holds up through the holiday period.
Full-Year View
Despite the prospects of an improved month ahead in May, Seaport expects a slowdown in growth to be seen by the end of the second half of 2026. This was attributed to more difficult year-over-year comparisons, as well as the requirement for increased demand or better liquidity to keep up the pace.
GGR growth is estimated to stand at 7% in total for the year, with growth at 9.9% during the first half and only 4.4% for the second half of the year.
Source: Asia Gaming Brief
