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A new bipartisan bill has entered the pile of prediction‑market crackdowns moving through Congress, with Rep. Nikki Budzinski and Rep. Adrian Smith unveiling the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act, or the PREDICT Act, in a press release yesterday (Mar 25).
Their proposal arrives after a wave of similar efforts in recent weeks, as lawmakers try to close gaps that allow public officials to trade on political outcomes.
The latest bill targets a wide group of federal figures, from Members of Congress and their families to the President, Vice President, senior appointees, and high‑ranking executive‑branch employees, and bans them from trading on markets tied to elections, policy decisions, or other government actions.
Budzinski said the rise of these platforms has made it easier for people with inside knowledge to profit from sensitive events, noting, “The American people are tired of politicians using their influence for personal gain… I am excited to be working with Representative Smith to close that loophole and ensure that those with access to sensitive information cannot profit from it.”
Smith also shared her view, saying, “Serving the American people is a privilege not a pathway to profit… Our commonsense, bipartisan bill will give Americans confidence that the decisions of their elected officials are guided by merit, not personal profit.”
Ban will cover potential proxy trades
The bill goes far beyond Members of Congress and their families. It includes lawmakers, their spouses, and dependent children, but it also stretches deep into the executive branch.
The President and Vice President fall under the ban, along with political appointees, senior officials paid above the GS‑15 level, and uniformed service members at O‑7 and above. Even fiduciaries acting on behalf of these individuals are included, meaning no one can trade through a proxy.
Judicial officers and judicial employees are also listed, bringing the courts into the scope of the restrictions.
The bill bans any contract, transaction, or arrangement where payment depends on whether a political event happens, doesn’t happen, or how it happens. That includes elections, policy decisions, government actions, and any event tied to official duties.
Budzinski’s proposal also directs supervising ethics offices to issue guidance on any unclear terms, giving them authority to interpret what counts as a political event or prohibited contract.
Fines from violators to go Treasury
The bill also outlines penalties for officials caught trading politically related contracts. The violator must pay a civil penalty equal to 10% of the value of the prohibited trade, along with full surrender of any profits. Those funds must go directly to the U.S. Treasury.
The bill also blocks officials from using government-related resources to pay these penalties. They cannot use their office budgets, campaign contributions, or any funds tied to their federal role. Only personal salary or personal funds can be used.
Ethics offices are required to publish every fine on a public website, including the reason for the penalty and the outcome of the assessment.
