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Prediction market operator Kalshi has created a dedicated research division and is opening its platform data to academics, in a move designed to embed the company more deeply in university research just as regulators, tribal governments, and the gambling industry challenge its business model in court.
Kalshi Research, unveiled this week, will sit alongside the firm’s trading venue as a separate unit tasked with supplying anonymised trading data, commissioning internal studies, and hosting an annual conference focused on event-based markets. The company says the new arm is patterned on research labs at large AI firms and is intended to make prediction markets a standard tool in economics and social-science research, not just a niche trading product.
Academic access to ‘full-stack’ prediction market data
Under the new initiative, approved scholars will be given access to the de-identified order book and trading data from Kalshi’s platform, which lists yes/no contracts on outcomes such as inflation releases, interest-rate decisions, and elections. The company describes the dataset as the most comprehensive record yet assembled on real-money prediction markets, covering contract creation, price formation, and settlement across a broad range of macro and political events.
Researchers will be able to use the data to study how quickly markets absorb information, how traders react to shocks, and whether event contracts provide statistically useful signals for policymakers and investors. Kalshi is positioning itself not only as a venue for retail and institutional traders, but also as a data provider whose markets can be audited and benchmarked in the same way as traditional financial instruments.
The firm says academics from universities including Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and the University of Chicago have already agreed to collaborate with the new unit, with additional partners expected to be announced ahead of the first conference. Calls for abstracts and registration have opened to researchers, forecasters, and practitioners globally.
First in-house study claims edge over Wall Street
To coincide with the launch, Kalshi Research released an internal paper evaluating how well its markets forecast US inflation compared with Wall Street consensus estimates.
Looking across multiple Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases and market regimes, the study finds that prices on Kalshi’s inflation contracts outperformed traditional benchmarks by roughly 40% when measured by standard forecast-error metrics one week before each release. According to the paper, Kalshi’s forecasts matched or beat the analyst consensus on about 85% of monthly prints during the period studied.
The authors also highlight what they call “shock alpha”: periods in which inflation came in well above or below expectations. In those months, Kalshi argues its markets were materially closer to the eventual outcome than bank forecasts, suggesting that event contracts may be especially informative when uncertainty is elevated and models calibrated on recent history struggle.
The study is not peer-reviewed and relies on Kalshi’s own methodology. However, the company is inviting external researchers to replicate and critique the work using the underlying anonymised data, positioning this as an early test of whether prediction markets can stand up to academic scrutiny on par with other financial indicators.
New conference aims to formalise a research community
Beyond bilateral data access, Kalshi Research plans to host what it describes as the first dedicated Prediction Market Conference, bringing together academics, traders, forecasters, regulators and community participants.
The agenda is expected to span empirical work on forecasting accuracy, order-book dynamics, market design, and potential applications in policy and corporate decision-making. Methodological sessions will focus on how to integrate prediction market prices into econometric models and how to control for liquidity, participation bias and regulatory constraints.
By setting up a recurring event, Kalshi is effectively trying to institutionalise prediction-market research as a recognised subfield within economics and political science, creating incentives for graduate students and faculty to publish on the topic and build careers around it.
Building scientific credibility amid legal headwinds
The research push comes at a sensitive moment for the company. Over the past two years, Kalshi has become a central test case in the legal fight over how to classify and regulate event contracts in the United States.
On one front, the firm has already secured a landmark win over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in Washington, D.C., after a federal court ruled that Kalshi could list contracts tied to which party would control Congress. The CFTC ultimately dropped its appeal, allowing those political products to proceed under federal derivatives rules.
On another front, Kalshi faces mounting opposition at the state level as it moves into sports-related contracts. State gaming regulators and attorneys general in jurisdictions such as Maryland, Nevada, New York, and others have argued that event contracts based on game outcomes amount to unlicensed sports betting, regardless of CFTC oversight. Several states have sought to block the company’s products or warned licensed sportsbooks against partnering with federally regulated prediction venues.
Tribal governments and the American Gaming Association have also weighed in with court filings, warning that allowing sports contracts to sit solely under federal commodities law would sidestep the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and decades of state-tribal compacts that govern wagering today. They argue that the model risks shifting core regulatory authority from state and tribal regulators to the CFTC without explicit congressional approval.
The future of prediction markets and internal studies
In the near term, Kalshi Research will focus on onboarding its initial cohort of academic partners, publishing further internal studies, and finalising the agenda for the inaugural conference. The company has signalled that subsequent papers will likely examine market efficiency around central-bank decisions and elections, building on the inflation study’s framework.
Whether that scientific case can sway judges, state regulators, and tribal governments remains an open question. But by standing up a dedicated research arm at the same time it fights for its business model in court, Kalshi is making clear that the future of prediction markets will be contested not only in regulatory hearings, but also in academic journals and conference halls.
Source: Kalshi
