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World Cup trading pushed prediction markets to a new high before activity cooled sharply
The race between Kalshi and Polymarket reached another milestone in July, with the two prediction market operators generating a combined $50.59 billion in monthly trading volume, the highest figure recorded so far. The surge was driven largely by intense betting activity surrounding the FIFA World Cup, although trading momentum eased once the tournament came to an end.
Kalshi accounted for most of the market’s expansion. The platform processed $37.7 billion in trades during July, climbing 14% from the previous month and extending its lead over competitors.
The picture was more mixed at Polymarket.
While the company’s offshore platform slowed noticeably, its newly expanded U.S. operation moved in the opposite direction. Trading on the main international platform fell 26% month over month to $7.9 billion, but Polymarket US grew 54% to $5 billion after opening access to all eligible American users earlier this year. Combined, the two Polymarket platforms generated $12.9 billion, down from roughly $14 billion in June.
U.S. expansion reshaped where traders placed their bets
The shift reflects a broader migration among American users.
Polymarket US, which operates under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), removed its waitlist restrictions in May. That gave U.S. traders a regulated domestic alternative instead of relying on the company’s offshore platform.
Earlier this year, Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimated that U.S. participants had been responsible for roughly 30% of trading volume on Polymarket’s international marketplace during the 12 months ending April 30, 2026. The July figures suggest a growing share of that activity is now moving onto the regulated U.S. platform.
Tournament excitement faded quickly
Football dominated prediction markets throughout July.
Kalshi’s market on the World Cup final between Spain and Argentina alone attracted about $1.9 billion in trading volume. On Polymarket, contracts predicting the tournament winner generated roughly $4 billion, making the competition one of the largest betting events either platform has hosted.
Once the final whistle blew, activity slowed almost immediately.
Open interest across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US dropped from around $2 billion at the beginning of July to approximately $1.2 billion by month’s end, indicating traders closed positions as the tournament concluded.
Legal disputes remain unresolved
Record trading has not eased regulatory pressure.
Kalshi and Polymarket continue to face challenges from more than a dozen U.S. state regulators, which argue that some of the companies’ sports-related event contracts amount to unlicensed gambling. Those states have sought to block the products within their jurisdictions.
The platforms dispute that interpretation. Together with the CFTC, they maintain that federally regulated event contracts fall under federal authority and should not be restricted by individual states, leaving the issue to play out through ongoing legal challenges.
Source: www.theblock.co
