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An Isreali Air Force reservist now faces serious charges after allegedly turning secret military briefings into profit on a prediction market.
A Tel Aviv court disclosed that the officer, who held the rank of major, was indicted last month alongside a civilian partner. Prosecutors say the two placed wagers on Polymarket tied to the timing of Israel’s opening strikes against Iran in June 2025, using information obtained from a confidential meeting.
The indictment claims the reservist shared details of the planned offensive with his accomplice a day before the operation began. When Israeli jets launched their attacks on June 13, the civilian placed the bet, and the pair later split the winnings of more than $160,000.
Both defendants face charges of severe security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Their names remain sealed under court order, though the gag was partially lifted after petitions from local media outlets, allowing the case details to be reported while identities stay hidden.
“No operational harm was caused,” IDF confirms
Investigators say the scheme didn’t just involve one wager, with the civilian opening a digital walet for the reservist and transferring his share of the winnings in cryptocurrency.
Together, they kept betting on Polymarket, including another successful prediction on when the 12‑day war would end. In September 2025, prosecutors allege the reservist again passed sensitive details, this time about a planned strike in Yemen, which earned them thousands more.
Their activity continued into January, when they tried to bet on the timing of renewed fighting with Iran. That wager was canceled after the civilian noticed social media posts about his account. Out of fear of being caught, he changed his profile and deleted WhatsApp messages between himself and the reservist.
The indictment was filed last month in Tel Aviv District Court, with prosecutors asking that both men remain in custody until trial.
Following the charges, the IDF stressed that “no operational harm was caused,” but also condemned the conduct as “a severe ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line,” adding that the actions “are not in line with IDF values and what is expected of servicemembers.”
Another crew member claims betting is more common air force personnel
In a separate event, an Israeli Air Force crew member questioned in connection with betting on Iran strikes admitted he had made tens of thousands of dollars from wagers.
This crew member holds a higher rank than the reservist already facing trial, but prosecutors chose not to indict him for now. He was placed under house arrest and removed from his squadron, while the indicted officer remains in custody as a security prisoner.
During his interrogation, and in that of the indicted officer, investigators learned that betting through Polymarket had become really common.
“The entire squadron is on Polymarket, the entire air force is betting,” the defendant said, though he refused to name others involved. “I also told an air crew member in another squadron. He told me that his entire squadron is on Polymarket.”
The State Prosecutor’s Office confirmed his case is still under review, according to a Haaretz report.
Evidence against him includes a WhatsApp message sent to his wife during the war with Iran last June, where he stated, “Good morning to your genius man who turned $1,000 into $46,000.”
Investigators also discovered that at least one commander knew about the betting. The suspect told interrogators he had mentioned his friend’s wagers to the commander, who replied that if he had known earlier, he would have bet too. The commander was later questioned for failing to act.
These cases of insider trading come as countries around Europe and North America are pushing to curb the rapid rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. In the US, multiple proposals have been introduced by Congress to ban Government officials from making bets using insider knowledge, while countries like Portugal and the Netherlands have announced complete bans on these platforms.
