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Galaxy Entertainment Group is stepping into FY26 with a financial position that gives it room to move as Macau’s recovery continues to unfold. A new research note from CBRE has taken a more upbeat view on the company, with the brokerage raising its price target and pointing to what it describes as a very solid balance sheet and net cash profile. In its assessment, the money Galaxy has been putting into its properties is now approaching the point where it will start to show more clearly in earnings across FY26 and FY27, especially as Macau’s overall operating environment remains supportive.
At year-end December 31, 2025, the firm had HK$36.3 billion cash and liquid investments, equivalent to $4.64 billion. However, with HK$1.3 billion ($166 million) of debt looming, the firm’s net cash position was HK$35 billion, equivalent to $4.48 billion. This cash position hasn’t only allowed Galaxy to continue with its large-scale capital expenditures but has also allowed it to continue to reward shareholders with dividends in the process. For the 12 months ending December 31, 2025, the firm declared and paid two dividends of HK$1.20 on shares. In addition, the board recommended a final dividend of HK$0.80 on shares, to be paid in June 2026.
The better outlook for casinos in Macau comes at the end of a strong run for the industry in 2025. In the fourth quarter, Galaxy posted adjusted EBITDA of HK$4.3 billion ($550 million), an increase of 33 percent year-on-year. That result meant adjusted EBITDA reached 106 percent of its level in the fourth quarter of 2019, marking a move back above the company’s pre-pandemic benchmark. The period also benefited from HK$731 million ($93.55 million) of favorable VIP hold, which gave an extra boost to the numbers.
Revenue at Galaxy Macau, the company’s flagship property, rose by 29 percent year over year to HK$11.8 billion ($1.51 billion). At the same time, adjusted EBITDA at the property rose by 41 percent to HK$4 billion ($512 million). Even after normalising for hold, EBITDA at Galaxy Macau was still up 15 percent. On the mass side, gross gaming revenue increased 17 percent to HK$8.7 billion ($1.11 billion), supported by 10 percent volume growth and a better hold comparison. VIP GGR, meanwhile, jumped 103 percent to HK$3.1 billion ($397 million), underpinned by 18 percent higher volumes and a stronger win rate.
Non-gaming activities have been an increasingly larger portion of Galaxy’s overall operations. The firm held 350 events in FY25, with non-gaming revenues reaching 125 percent of 2019 levels. In the near future, the firm will continue to build on an attractive events program for FY26. This includes concerts, shows, and other activities to keep foot traffic going in and around the casinos beyond the traditional Chinese New Year and Golden Week. For 2026, Galaxy says it has UFC Fight Nights and a renewed 3-year deal with Alibaba’s Damai Entertainment.
A key addition on the hospitality side is the official opening of the ultra-luxury Capella hotel tower at Galaxy Macau in February 2026. The firm’s new tower, comprising 95 suites and villas, caters to the upper end of the mass market. According to analysts at CBRE, comprising John DeCree and Max Marsh, the feedback on the tower was good, and the firm believes the tower will support super-premium mass business later this year. The Capella launch fits into Galaxy’s broader strategy of deepening its appeal to higher-spending guests while enhancing the overall positioning of its Cotai portfolio.
Moving on to trading momentum, the firm saw softer trading for the early part of Q1 2026, coinciding with the Chinese New Year. However, trading picked up from day three of the holiday period. Presently, the firm holds 22 percent of the market. In the near future, the firm recognizes that the premium mass space remains a competitive one. However, the firm’s focus on EBITDA growth remains paramount, and the firm sees no surge in reinvestment.
Moving on to the near future, the firm continues to progress on Phase 4 at Galaxy Macau, with the phase set to open in FY27. This next stage of development will add more rooms, amenities, and entertainment capacity to the resort, reinforcing the investments that CBRE believes will begin to “bear fruit” over the coming 2 financial years. Backed by a substantial net cash position and a portfolio that is once again delivering results above 2019 levels, Galaxy is positioned to lean into that next phase of growth as Macau’s market continues its gradual expansion.
Source: Asia Gaming Brief (AGB)
