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An independent report by Ernst & Young (EY) has warned that proposed reforms to the UK’s betting and gaming tax system could significantly reduce the sector’s economic contribution and drive more players towards unregulated gambling markets.
The report — Impacts of Changes to Betting and Gaming Taxation — was commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) and submitted to His Majesty’s Treasury ahead of the Autumn 2025 Budget. It models a range of possible tax reforms under government consideration, including the alignment of remote betting and gaming duties and potential increases in overall excise rates.
Economic Impact and Job Losses Projected
According to EY’s analysis, aligning General Betting Duty and Remote Gaming Duty at 21% would initially generate around £250 million ($333 million) in additional Treasury revenue. However, the consultancy warned that wider economic consequences — including reduced stakes, lower operator profitability, and potential venue closures — could lead to a £240 million fall in Gross Value Added (GVA) and the loss of approximately 3,000 jobs across the industry.
The report also examined more aggressive tax scenarios proposed by think tanks such as the Social Market Foundation and the Institute for Public Policy Research. EY predicted that the sector’s supply chain would see a sharp drop in employment as well as overall GVA losses of over £2 billion under models where the remote gaming duty increased to 50%.
HMRC receipts, Gambling Commission statistics, and BGC member data served as the foundation for EY’s conclusions. The company pointed out that the negative effects of higher taxes would probably be amplified by consumer sensitivity to price increases as well as the new regulatory measures described in the Government’s 2023 Gambling White Paper.
Danger of the Black Market Growing
EY also emphasized the danger of a growing black market. According to the report, if duty levels increase significantly, up to 8% of gambling activity may shift to unlicensed offshore operators, potentially jeopardizing player protections and lowering tax revenues.
The publication of the EY analysis comes amid growing debate over gambling taxation. In August, discussions around duty alignment sparked a one-day strike by British racing stakeholders, who argued that the proposed changes could threaten the sport’s financial sustainability.
The Betting and Gaming Council said the findings were intended to inform constructive discussions with the Treasury as it finalizes its approach to gambling taxation in the upcoming Autumn Budget. The Council reiterated its position that any reform should balance fiscal objectives with the need to protect jobs, investment, and player safety within a well-regulated market.
Source: Gambling Insider
