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Today marks the final opportunity for Norwegians to cast their vote and decide who will govern the country for the next four years. This election stands out as one of the most polarized in recent memory, echoing trends we’ve seen across Europe and the United States.
A More Polarized Campaign
The rhetoric has become sharper than usual. In one of the final debates, Progress Party (FrP) leader Sylvi Listhaug accused the head of the Labour Party’s youth wing (AUF) of being a “notorious liar”—a tone rarely heard in Norwegian politics.
Despite recent scandals at Norsk Tipping, gambling has not been a topic on the political agenda. Instead, the debate has centered on wealth tax and electricity prices, dominating the campaigns on both sides of the political spectrum.
An “Americanized” Election?
This year’s election has also been shaped by unusual tactics. Anonymous ad campaigns on Facebook, political podcasts mobilizing their listeners, and even documentary films exposing government spending have entered the mix. Many commentators argue that Norwegian politics has become increasingly “Americanized,” with more direct confrontation and new digital channels influencing voters.
The Numbers – What the Polls Say
The last major poll, conducted on Saturday, September 6, suggested a potential shift of power. It showed the governing left-wing coalition (Labour, Socialist Left, Centre Party, and Greens) at 91 seats versus 78 for the right-wing bloc.
Understanding the 4% Threshold
Norway’s proportional system comes with a decisive rule: the electoral threshold of 4%.
Parties below 4%: They receive only the district seats they directly win—often just one or two.
Parties above 4%: They qualify for leveling seats (utjevningsmandater), which provide additional mandates to better reflect their national support.
This threshold acts like a political cliff edge. A small party at 4.1% could deliver its bloc an extra 6–8 seats. But if it slips to 3.9%, those seats vanish—potentially flipping the balance of power.
What Does This Mean for Gambling Policy?
In practice, little is likely to change. Norway’s gambling monopoly is not on the political radar, and most parties appear comfortable with the status quo.
The exception is the Progress Party (FrP), which has consistently argued for reforming the monopoly system. FrP is projected to grow from 21 seats to 36 seats. While far from enough to drive reform alone, their stronger presence in parliament could keep the debate alive and raise the visibility of gambling policy in the years ahead.
Voices from Inside Norway
One iGaming professional based in Norway, who preferred to remain anonymous, noted that Labour and the left-wing coalition appear to have successfully mobilized. Yet he pointed out the challenges of such a coalition: “We’re talking about a government where the far-left party Rødt and the Greens (MDG) both gain influence. It’s not easy to imagine how this will work in practice.”
Another observer, Sondre Kleven, offered a sharp summary of the campaign:
Who wins? “Despite fluctuations in the polls, the most likely outcome is another red-green government with Labour as the largest party and Jonas Gahr Støre remaining prime minister.”
How to summarize the election? “This election has largely revolved around two issues: wealth tax and tactical voting. The wealth tax debate has been intense, especially with high-profile business owners leaving Norway in protest. And never before have I heard so much talk about tactical voting—smaller parties like MDG, Venstre, and KrF could prove decisive.”
Kleven also noted his disappointment that other issues, including gambling policy, received little attention: “It is high time the gambling system in Norway is modernized.”
When is the results ready?
As polls close and counting begins, Norwegians and international observers alike will be watching closely. Early exit polls are expected shortly after the voting stations close on Monday evening, with preliminary results emerging later that night. However, because of Norway’s system of leveling seats, the final balance of power may not be clear until Tuesday. In other words, while the direction of the election may become evident on election night, we will only know the definitive outcome — and which bloc has secured a majority in the Storting — once every mandate is confirmed. So, tomorrow we will know who will rule Norway for the next four years
