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Dutch lawmakers raised the gambling tax rate in two steps, first from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025 and then to 37.8% in January 2026.
The goal was to strengthen public finances by generating an extra €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. But the latest monitoring report from the Ministry of Finance and the Kansspelautoriteit shows that the policy has not delivered as planned. Instead of the expected windfall, the increase in 2025 brought in only €2 million more than the previous year.
For 2026, projections suggest an additional €57 million compared to 2024, still far below the target.
Revenue shortfall and contributing factors
The report explains that several developments hit the market at the same time, making it difficult to isolate the effect of the tax hike. New rules aimed at protecting players were introduced in late 2024, including monthly deposit limits of €300 for young adults and €700 for older players.
These measures reduced the amount of money flowing into gambling platforms, which in turn lowered the taxable base. Other changes, such as the ban on sponsorships by gambling companies and stricter advertising rules, also influenced revenues.
The monitoring shows that while the higher tax rate should have boosted collections, the shrinking base offset much of the gain. A calculation model estimated that the isolated effect of the tax increase could have been €83 million in 2025 and €138 million in 2026, but actual results fell short.
The report also noted that corporate tax receipts, dividends from state‑owned gambling firms, and contributions to good causes and sports all declined, further reducing the net benefit to the state.
Impact on the legal market
The legal gambling market has shown mixed signals since the tax hike. Visits to casinos and slot halls dropped by 11% between early 2025 and early 2026, while the number of venues also declined, with closures reported by major chains such as JVH Gaming and Fair Play Casino.
Operators cited rising costs and the tax increase as reasons for shutting down locations.
Online gambling, however, remained relatively stable after a sharp fall in late 2024 caused by the new player protection rules. The gross gaming revenue for online operators held steady, with a slight rise in early 2026.
The report found no clear evidence that the tax hike alone drove changes in online activity, but it acknowledged that the combination of new rules and higher taxes created pressure across the sector.
