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Dow Jones is betting that prediction markets belong in the same conversation as earnings estimates, polling averages, and traditional market data.
On Wednesday, the company announced that it has signed an exclusive partnership with Polymarket, which will feature real-time prediction market data across multiple outlets. The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch, and Investor’s Business Daily were mentioned.
“As part of the deal,” Dow Jones said it will roll out consumer-facing products powered by prediction market signals, including a custom earnings calendar showing market-implied expectations around corporate performance. Financial terms were not disclosed.
“We’re making prediction markets data accessible to our users, because it’s a rapidly growing source of real-time insight into collective beliefs about future events,” Dow Jones CEO Almar Latour said.
However, the deal comes at a time when a growing group of regulators, tribes, and lawmakers continues to ask: Are prediction markets a legitimate financial product or a form of gambling masquerading as something else?
Tribal leaders: “This is a threat to sovereignty.”
The newest flashpoint is coming from Indian Country with legitimate concerns about the expanding phase of prediction markets.
David Bean, the new chairman of the Indian Gaming Association (IGA), told tribes this week that prediction markets, especially those related to sports contracts, have become a top priority for the group. He said the group plans to press Congress and support litigation aimed at stopping what he views as an expanding threat to tribal gaming.
“The challenge facing Indian gaming hasn’t changed with prediction markets,”
Bean said during IGA’s “New Normal” webinar.
“We need to educate members of Congress and let them know the CFTC isn’t doing their job… and with respect to Indian gaming, it impacts our ability to provide essential services.”
Bean pointed to a high-profile Polymarket trade tied to Venezuela as an example of the kind of controversy that can arise. In his view, it exposes the vulnerability of these platforms to manipulation. He described it as a warning sign for public trust and oversight.
IGA leaders were not alone in questioning whether anyone is truly “in charge” when a market dispute turns into a public fight. Webinar host Victor Rocha argued that oversight gaps leave these contracts exposed. At the same time, executive director Jason Giles pointed to payout confusion as evidence that operators can end up “making it up as they go along,” in the eyes of critics.
Expert view: the core fight is jurisdiction, and then technology
Legal observers tracking the space say the real conflict is likely structural.
Prediction markets argue they fall under federal commodities oversight when contracts are offered through regulated channels. State gambling regulators and tribal stakeholders counter that sports-event contracts function like wagering and should sit under gaming law, licensing, and integrity controls.
A December analysis of prediction markets’ legal trajectory noted that courts are now being asked to decide whether these event contracts are valid derivative, or a path around state gambling rules.
That tension has also shaped how different platforms are treated. Front Office Sports reported that Polymarket has, so far, avoided some of the direct legal heat faced by rivals, in part because regulators are watching how early court fights play out before widening their approach.
Even inside federal oversight circles, the message has been cautious. The incoming CFTC leadership has signaled restraint in taking a sweeping position on sports contracts, with some officials suggesting that courts may ultimately settle key questions first.
The insider-trading question is now part of the story
The Venezuela trade also pushed another issue to the top of the agenda: material non-public information.
Business Insider reported that Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour backed proposed legislation aimed at banning government officials from insider trading on prediction markets, writing that trading on material non-public information is “committing a financial crime.”
Mansour also warned against lumping all prediction markets together, arguing there’s a difference between platforms operating under U.S. oversight and offshore-style markets with thinner guardrails.
Dow Jones, in tandem with the Kalshi agreement, may matter even more right now
The Dow Jones partnership is not happening in isolation. CNBC had signed a separate agreement with Kalshi to incorporate prediction-market probability data into its broadcasts and digital products, starting in 2026.
Taken together, these media moves push prediction markets into a new phase, one where a mainstream information layer sits alongside traditional reporting.
That, experts say, will only intensify the pressure on policymakers to clarify who regulates what, especially as tribes and states argue that the same consumer protections and integrity checks applied to legal sportsbooks should apply when the “bet” looks and feels the same.
For 2026, the next chapter may already be in place. Critics expect more courtroom battles, more lobbying, and increased scrutiny of how these markets establish rules, verify outcomes, and police abuse—now with a much larger audience watching the proceedings.
Source: CDC Gaming
