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Macau’s casinos are on track for another strong month, with Citigroup nudging its August gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast slightly higher. The bank now expects operators to pull in around MOP21.75 billion (US$2.7 billion), up from its earlier projection of MOP21.50 billion.
If that number holds, it would mean revenues are 10% higher than last August and sitting at about 90% of pre-pandemic August 2019 levels — a sign the city’s recovery continues to gain ground.
Early August Shows Momentum
Industry trackers estimate that in the first 17 days of August, Macau’s casinos raked in about MOP12.1 billion. That works out to an average of MOP729 million per day between August 11 and 17, a little stronger than the MOP700 million daily pace seen at the start of the month.
Compared with last year, the city is well ahead — roughly 14% higher than the daily average in August 2024.
Storms Couldn’t Slow the Action
Even a black rainstorm warning in mid-August wasn’t enough to knock momentum off course. Players still showed up, and tables stayed busy, underlining how resilient demand has become in Macau’s gaming market.
Mass Market Leads the Way
The mass segment continues to drive growth, edging up 1% to 2% month-on-month. The VIP sector, on the other hand, slipped between 2% and 4% compared with July. Still, casinos are benefiting from a stronger VIP hold rate, which is giving revenue an extra lift despite the decline in volumes.
What’s Needed for the Rest of the Month
To hit Citi’s new target, Macau would need to average about MOP689 million per day for the remainder of August. Given the performance so far, analysts believe that target is well within reach.
July Set a Strong Benchmark
The upbeat forecast follows a record-setting July, when official data showed that casinos brought in nearly MOP22.13 billion. That was the best monthly performance since January 2020, before the pandemic shut down travel, and represented a 19% year-on-year jump.
Recovery Gaining Pace
While there’s still some way to go before Macau returns fully to pre-2020 levels, August’s numbers point to a market that is stabilizing and building momentum. With mass play proving steady and VIP trends showing some improvement in hold rates, the city’s gaming industry looks to be firmly on the path of recovery.
