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CBRE Equity Research expects Macau’s gaming market to keep expanding in 2026, with gross gaming revenue forecast to rise 8.3% year-on-year. That would put growth 2.0 percentage points above the current market consensus and would follow the 2025 GGR of MOP247.40 billion, according to Macau government data.
Forecast Above Market View
The research house said its outlook is being supported by broader economic conditions in China, including the government’s target of 4.5% to 5.0% growth in gross domestic product. Analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh wrote in a Monday note that Macau GGR should come in above the full-year 2026 consensus estimate of 6.0% growth.
That view comes after Macau’s GGR for the 3 months to March 31 reached MOP65.87 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year. CBRE said that for full-year growth to end up only at consensus, quarterly performance would need to slow sharply for the rest of the year, something it does not see as likely.
The analysts said they expect Macau GGR to grow faster than mainland China’s GDP, arguing that the Chinese consumer should continue to benefit from targeted stimulus. In their view, that should help support the market’s overall revenue trend through the year.
EBITDA Outlook Improves
CBRE also said stronger topline performance should support earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation across the sector. That point matters because some analysts have recently focused on how revenue gains are flowing through to EBITDA. CBRE said the first-quarter GGR performance was strong enough to support continued EBITDA growth for most operators, even those that may have traded some market share for better profitability.
The analysts also pointed to signs that operating expenditure and competitive pressure are starting to stabilize among Macau’s 6 operators. They noted that these costs and promotional activity had risen in the 4th quarter of 2025, which had sparked concern at the time. CBRE said market-wide commission dollars increased 21% year-on-year in the 4th quarter, reaching 19.2% of GGR, while non-tax operating expenditure rose 8.6%.
Promotional Costs Level Off
CBRE said elevated promotional activity has been driven by a small number of operators, including Las Vegas Sands Corp, the parent of Macau operator Sands China Ltd. The firm said Sands has been clear about its efforts to regain market share, and that this has helped push promotional spending higher in the market.
Even so, the analysts expect that spending to remain high while becoming more stable in full-year 2026. They also expect operating expenditure growth to normalize as a number of concession-related investments are already built into the cost structure. That suggests the pressure from promotion and overhead may not disappear, but it may become more predictable as the year goes on.
Entertainment Spend And Base Mass Demand
The investment in entertainment in Macau, in particular, was another factor cited by CBRE as a reason why the market would attract more tourists. According to CBRE, the entertainment sector may particularly appeal to the base mass market that hasn’t yet fully recovered from its pandemic lows.
Overall, Macau is expected to do well by CBRE’s projections in 2026, given its steady revenue growth, low cost profile, and continued support from tourists.
Source: GGR Asia
