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California’s tribal leaders are holding firm on 2028 as the year they plan to bring a tribally led online sports betting initiative to voters.
Speaking at the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States summer meeting in San Diego, CNIGA Chairman James Siva said tribes remain committed to that timeline despite the rapid growth of prediction markets.
“We’re still very much looking at 2028 as a date that tribes are preparing to move forward with a tribally led initiative for an online sports betting market,” he explained.
Under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and tribal‑state compacts, federally recognized tribes in California have exclusive rights to offer Class III gaming, which includes sports betting. To open a regulated online market, voters would need to approve the measure at the ballot box, followed by renegotiation and ratification of compacts.
The 2028 target is not new. Siva has previously pointed to that year as the goal for putting the question before voters, after Californians rejected competing sports betting proposals four years ago.
Sitting alongside other tribal leaders, including Erica Schenk of the Cahuilla Band of Indians and Johnny Hernandez Jr. of the Yuhaaviatam of San Manuel Nation, Siva stressed that CNIGA’s plan is built on fairness.
He said the model must ensure all tribes benefit from expansion, while also creating economic opportunities for non‑gaming tribes and surrounding communities.
Prediction markets continue to threaten tribal revenues
California’s tribes may still be focused on 2028 for sports betting, but the financial pressure is already being felt. For years, Indian Country has fought to protect its gaming rights, taking on unlicensed sportsbooks and sweepstakes casinos. Now, Siva says prediction markets pose a challenge unlike any they have faced before.
Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are offering products that look and feel like sports wagering in California. DraftKings and FanDuel have also rolled out prediction services, though both block access on tribal lands.
“Without a doubt, prediction markets are the largest, most impending threat we’ve faced since the creation of this industry,” Siva told attendees, stressing that his warning was not exaggerated. Hernandez agreed, saying sports event contracts should be treated as gambling.
Siva added that the impact is already visible, with tribal gaming revenues slipping. He estimated losses could be as high as five percent. “We’re starting to see real revenue numbers leave Indian Country,” he said.
