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On March 9, 2026, Brazil’s Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) of the Ministry of Finance issued an official statement regarding prediction markets. This statement coincided with XP’s publicly disclosed partnership with Kalshi, aiming to venture into this new market.
In their statement, the SPA stated, “The SPA has formally authorized no Brazilian company to operate in this segment.” They also stated that “the issue is being continuously technically monitored by the Secretariat, also on an international level.” They are awaiting an official opinion from the National Securities Commission.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are unlike traditional fixed-odds betting: instead of betting against a bookie, an investor buys a contract on a future outcome.
According to reports by Folha de São Paulo, regulated bet operators in Brazil have requested the SPA to bar Kalshi and Polymarket from engaging in activities in Brazil.
Currently, prediction markets are not regulated in Brazil, and Brazilian investors looking to engage in this market are required to transfer their funds to accounts in the US.
SPA’s Official Statement
The SPA clarified:
“The Secretariat of Prizes and Bets of the Ministry of Finance conducts continuous technical monitoring of this issue, including on an international level. Prediction markets are part of the Secretariat’s internal analysis agenda, with preliminary studies ongoing. It is important to note that currently, no Brazilian company has been formally authorized by the SPA to operate in this segment.
The Secretariat has received technical notes from industry companies presenting evaluations of so-called predictive markets and is approaching the matter with caution, institutional responsibility, and a focus on preventing regulatory gaps, ensuring consistency with the existing legal framework.
Any further regulatory evaluation on this topic will depend on the conclusions of the ongoing technical analyses and will be carried out in coordination with the competent bodies, including the National Securities Commission (CVM), to assess possible regulatory interfaces.”
This statement underscores SPA’s commitment to preventing unregulated operations and ensuring legal compliance within the betting and financial markets in Brazil.
Implications for the Brazilian Market
The SPA’s warning regarding prediction markets reflects the government’s concern with newly developed investment tools, which may lead to confusion between financial instruments and gambling activities. Prediction markets are being monitored by the government to prevent any unregulated activities that may affect investors or violate the current laws regarding gambling and financial instruments.
With the XP–Kalshi partnership being in the spotlight, Brazilian companies and investors must be careful in dealing with the regulatory uncertainty surrounding this new trend in the financial market. The proactive role of the SPA is intended to ensure the integrity of the market, providing a framework for the development of regulatory guidelines in the future.
The partnership between the SPA and CVM may be crucial in establishing whether prediction markets are legally allowed in Brazil and under what framework, potentially opening the doors for this segment in the financial market in Brazil once authorized and regulated.
Source: SBC Noticias
