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Brazil’s betting industry could soon face another tax hike.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government is pushing forward with plans to increase taxes on both high-income earners and online betting operators, now backed by a key new political ally.
The move gained momentum with the appointment of Guilherme Boulos as Minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency. At his inauguration ceremony in Brasília, Boulos made it clear that the administration’s fiscal reforms are here to stay.
A fiery debut in Brasília
Politics in Brazil rarely lacks passion, and Boulos brought plenty of it.
In his first speech, he criticised opposition lawmakers for blocking the government’s economic proposals and accused them of double standards. He said at the Palácio do Planalto:
“Let them know: for every attack there will be a response, for every lie, a rebuttal. Our role will also be to expose the hypocrisy of those who claim to be against the system and to defend the people.”
He also challenged opponents who refused to support the new tax agenda. He asked:
“If they’re against the system, then why don’t they support our proposal to tax billionaires and ‘Bets’? If they defend the people, why don’t they join us in ending the 6×1 work schedule?”
His words drew attention to one of the most controversial parts of Lula’s fiscal plan, a proposal to raise the Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) tax applied to sports betting and online gaming platforms.
Betting taxes at the heart of Lula’s fiscal plan
For Lula’s government, higher gaming taxes are part of a broader effort to increase revenue while expanding social programmes.
Under current rules, licensed operators already pay a 12% GGR tax, plus corporate taxes like IRPJ, CSLL, and PIS/COFINS. The industry argues that the combined rate already exceeds 25%, but the new proposal could push it close to 40%.
Government officials see the measure as a way to generate more public income and rein in unregulated betting activity. But operators warn it could backfire, forcing legal companies to close and driving players to illegal gambling sites, which already account for around half of Brazil’s iGaming activity.
Industry fears black market expansion
Raising taxes might fill short-term gaps, but the long-term risk could be bigger.
If regulated operators struggle to stay profitable, experts say the black market could grow even faster. Unlicensed platforms already operate outside Brazil’s tax system and avoid all requirements around player safety, responsible gambling, and anti-money laundering controls.
That means less revenue for the state and less protection for consumers.
The crossroads for Brazil’s iGaming market
The debate over betting taxes highlights a deeper question about how Brazil wants to shape its gaming industry. Should the government focus on higher revenue, or should it prioritise a stable, competitive market that keeps players in the legal system?
As Boulos steps into his new role and Lula’s reform agenda accelerates, the answer will define how Brazil’s regulated iGaming market evolves over the next few years.
In a country balancing growth, fairness, and fiscal pressure, how high can taxes climb before the game itself breaks?
Source: YOGONET
