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The political scene in Thailand is now trending back towards the establishment following the national election, where the royalist Bhumjaithai Party has gained a clear advantage. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced victory over the weekend, while the reformist People’s Party conceded defeat and announced that it would not take part in any coalition negotiations. Initial election data showed that Bhumjaithai was set to win some 200 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, well ahead of the 110 to 115 seats projected for the People’s Party, giving Anutin the leeway to take the initiative in forming a new government and setting its agenda.
Establishment Becoming Stronger Despite Border Tension
This achievement can be viewed as an important achievement for the Thai power elite, to whom the monarchy and military are close, given their affiliation with Bhumjaithai. Nationalism appears to be on the rise, particularly after the border confrontation with Cambodia, with Bhumjaithai recording triple the seats it won in the previous election.
With this victory, it is not expected that Anutin will listen to the demands of the pro-democracy movement for radical changes in the country’s institutions. The demands for a change in the monarchy, the military’s dominance of politics, and the constitution are not expected to happen in a government led by the Bhumjaithai party. The People’s Party has already rejected the idea of a coalition government and staying in the opposition and will now take their reform agenda to the streets.
Economy and Tourism Under Scrutiny
While there is plenty of news about politics and government, the slow-growing Thai economy remains a concern for the future. There have been fewer visitors, particularly from mainland China, as consumers become more concerned about safety and change their travel patterns. The question is how the new government will stimulate economic growth in one of its key industries.
Bold economic experiments of that sort seem unlikely. Bhumjaithai played a central role in the collapse of last year’s push to legalize casino gaming within integrated entertainment complexes, helping to derail a controversial bill and, in the process, contributing to the downfall of former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her Pheu Thai Party. That history has reinforced the perception that legal casinos, or similarly bold economic reforms, are unlikely under Anutin’s leadership.
Anti-Casino Stance Shapes Policy Direction
Bhumjaithai’s opposition to casino legalization has become one of the clearest signals of the type of economic path the party is willing to support. The earlier casino proposal was pitched by its backers as a way to boost investment and tourism, but the party moved firmly against it, and the Thai Senate ultimately rejected the bill while calling for any future efforts to be subject to a public referendum. The constitutional court’s removal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office soon after only underlined how contentious the issue had become.
In the aftermath of the Sunday votes, Anutin called it a move to a “steady state,” which indicated a measure taken to favor stability as opposed to swift, disruptive change. The words have been interpreted as a sign from the government that major policy shifts aren’t planned, while the country is facing economic pressures.
Gradual Likely Under Conservative Leadership
Analysts are now speculating on what this “steady state” will look like in terms of fiscal policy and structural reforms. Peter Mumford, a consultant at Eurasia Group, said in a Bloomberg interview that if Bhumjaithai becomes the next ruling party, fiscal policy will likely be more conservative in general, although it will still provide some space for targeted stimulus policies. He also said that any economic reform agenda in a conservative-led government will likely move in small steps, rather than in large packages.
This is also consistent with the overall trend of Anutin and his party’s attitude towards politics, which is that they are very supportive of the monarchy, not in favor of institutional reforms, and not interested in high-risk economic investments such as casino gaming. With the People’s Party opting to remain in the opposition and the pro-democracy movement being challenged by an emboldened establishment, Thailand is likely to enter a phase in which change, if it happens at all, will be incremental in nature despite the country’s slow growth and declining tourist arrivals.
Source: Inside Asian Gaming (IAG)
