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Brazil’s regulated online betting market hit its one-year mark on 1 January 2026 with more than 80 operators licensed and a tax take that already runs into the billions of reais, according to figures referenced by industry and government-facing reporting.
For Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), year one did what it needed to do: prove the model can work under pressure, and give regulators and operators something real to build on.
“The first year of the regulated betting market in Brazil was challenging but absolutely fundamental for the consolidation of the sector,” Lemos Jorge said in comments published this week.
Year one, by the numbers
Brazil’s fixed-odds betting regulation began operating under a national licensing structure at the start of 2025. Since then, the licensed market has scaled quickly, with 80+ approvals during the first 12 months.
Tax receipts have scaled with it. Reporting citing Federal Revenue Service figures put the market at nearly BRL 9 billion in tax revenue across the first 11 months of the regulated year, with full-year totals still pending.
ANJL has placed that ramp-up as evidence that regulation can deliver both oversight and economic contribution, but Lemos Jorge argues the next phase depends on keeping the rules stable enough for the legal market to hold ground.
The second-year scoreboard: stability, sustainability, enforcement
In his assessment, Brazil’s “year two” outcome comes down to three connected pressure points: regulatory stability, a workable economic environment for licensees, and effective action against illegal operators.
That framing lands as Brasília weighs multiple policy levers at once.
A new staged tax rise is now on the books after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva approved Complementary Law No. 224, which lifts the betting tax rate from 12% of GGR to 13% in 2026, 14% in 2027, and 15% from 2028.
On top of that, lawmakers have been debating additional fiscal steps. The Senate plenary has already approved a proposed 15% tax on player deposits (CIDE-Bets), though the bill’s next steps still require further action before it could become law.
“Initiatives to significantly increase the sector’s tax burden create a scenario that directly compromises the economic sustainability of companies operating in the regulated market,”
Lemos Jorge said, as ANJL continues to lobby against what it views as tax levels that could push activity away from licensed channels.
Advertising restrictions still on the table
Marketing rules are also in motion.
The Senate has advanced proposals that would tighten advertising, including measures discussed around time restrictions and limits tied to live sports broadcasts. The measures have drawn pushback from parts of the licensed industry, and timing for the next legislative steps has remained a key unknown entering 2026.
Lemos Jorge’s broader point is that constant changes, especially when they arrive in clusters, make it harder to lock in compliance systems, marketing strategies, and long-term investment plans.
Illegal market: the fight shifts to payments
Even with licensing in place, Brazil’s legal market is still competing with a large unlicensed layer. Estimates cited in industry reporting commonly place illegal operators at roughly 41% to 51% of total activity, a range that underlines why enforcement remains the biggest talking point in year two.
ANJL’s strategy has stayed focused on choking off access to money movement.
A key policy milestone was Normative Ordinance No. 566, which bars banks and payment institutions from facilitating transactions linked to unauthorised betting and lays out reporting expectations designed to help identify illegal operators in the payment chain.
“In practice, this measure directly strikes at the heart of the illegal market,” Lemos Jorge said, arguing that reduced access to mainstream payments limits an illegal site’s ability to collect deposits and pay out winnings.
He also warned that enforcement is not a one-and-done project.
“Combatting the illegal betting market is a permanent challenge,” he said, adding that tactics that work in one cycle can fade quickly as operators change domains, payment routes, and marketing methods.
A welfare-ban complication
One of the most sensitive issues now is the ban on betting by certain social welfare beneficiaries, which Brazil’s betting regulator (SPA) formalised in 2025.
Lemos Jorge has pointed to survey findings commissioned by ANJL suggesting a meaningful share of affected players could drift toward unlicensed sites if legal access is closed — an argument ANJL is using to push for evidence-led policy that reduces harm without boosting illegal market appeal.
The 2026 test
Brazil’s first regulated year delivered a functioning licensing market and measurable tax receipts. The second year, ANJL argues, will be about whether policy choices reinforce that channel, or unintentionally thin it out.
As Lemos Jorge put it, the work now is to keep pressure on illegal betting while steering lawmakers away from changes that, in ANJL’s view, could make the licensed option harder to sustain.
Source: Gaming America
