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The growing use of baccarat side bets across Asia is creating new opportunities for advantage players, with some teams using artificial intelligence to identify when the wagers offer a mathematical edge over casinos.
The issue was highlighted by casino analytics and strategy consultancy Differential Labs. Its analysis said AI-assisted play is affecting casino win rates and is becoming increasingly difficult to detect at both land-based and online properties.
Differential Labs estimates that advantage-play leakage is costing operators across Asia between US$500 million and US$700 million each year.
Side Bets Become Major Revenue Source
Side bets account for only 5% of betting volume but generate between 40% and 60% of baccarat revenue at many casinos, according to the analysis. This has made them valuable to operators and attractive to advantageous players.
The risk first became a major concern online, where bots are commonly used. Differential Labs said it was now becoming more prominent in bricks-and-mortar casinos, particularly in Asia.
The spread of smart table technology has helped baccarat side bets become more common across the region. The technology allows more varied table layouts because of the increased chip security it provides.
AI Changes Advantage Play
Computer-aided counting combined with AI allows players to identify favourable opportunities more accurately and place wagers more efficiently. Differential Labs said the approach could potentially triple profits compared with flat-betting alone.
AI enables what the consultancy calls portfolio counting, in which an advantage player watches several side bets at the same time and places money on the one that becomes favourable.
A player counting 1 side bet in Macau may find a positive expected-value situation 1 to 3 times per shoe. Counting all the available bets can produce around 7 such opportunities.
The analysis gave Super Lucky Seven as an example. Flat-betting 7 units returns 0.27 units per shoe on 7 units wagered, while allocating the same amount across all bets through portfolio counting returns 1.04 units. The chance of leaving a shoe with a profit rises from about 8% to nearly 1 in 3.
Certain Bets Carry Greater Risk
Differential Labs identified High Tie-0, High Tie-3, High Tie-9, and High Tie-8 as among the riskiest side bets. These wagers are gaining popularity in Manila and Singapore because they are easy to count and can deliver profitable shoes consistently.
Dragon Seven and Four Card Tie were also identified as high-risk side bets. The Macau side bet Monkey/No Monkey was described as the easiest to count, with a player able to improve their chances by 46% over random selection without computer assistance. Its volatility, however, reduces the strength of the edge.
Lucky Six, Pair Plus, Small Tiger, and Super Lucky Seven were considered difficult to count or too volatile to produce consistently positive shoes. Big/Small Tiger, which accounts for about 20% of Macau revenue, was described as difficult for players to find a lasting advantage in.
Casinos Consider AI Response
The number of players using AI-assisted counting has increased since 2021, according to Differential Labs. Asian teams may use floor monitors, bankroll leaders, and off-site coordination, while AI-powered applications are openly sold online.
Electronic table games were described as particularly vulnerable because 1 player can watch several games simultaneously, and vendors have not made bet-level data accessible.
Differential Labs said AI could also form part of the solution. Rather than relying only on deeper cut cards, restrictions, or additional friction, casinos could use AI to identify suspicious play proactively and at scale.
Source: Inside Asian Gaming
