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The American Gaming Association expects Americans to wager about $3.3 billion legally on the 2026 NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. That figure marks a sharp rise, more than 50% higher than what was recorded three years ago. Last year, the figure sat at $3.1 billion.
“March Madness is the highlight of the college basketball season, and fans are gearing up for a month of tournament action,” said AGA President and Chief Executive Officer Bill Miller. “Fans continue to engage with legal, state and tribal-regulated sports betting in record numbers during one of the biggest moments on the sports calendar.”
According to the AGA, this growth comes from the expansion of state and tribal regulated markets and from rising confidence in legal betting options.
Interest continues to rise despite ads decline
Even though gambling ads are showing up less often, betting interest around March Madness keeps growing. Nielsen’s study found that overall sports betting ad volume dropped 1% in 2025 compared to the year before, while spending fell 5%.
Looking back to 2021, when ads were at their peak, the decline is even bigger, total ad volume has fallen 27%, with TV ads alone down more than half since then. Ad volume for sports betting on TV fell 9% from 2024, and since 2021, TV ads have fallen by about 51%.
The AGA says this slowdown in advertising has not stopped people from betting. Sports betting made up less than 1% of total TV ad spend last year, while alcohol ads accounted for about 1.5%.
Prediction markets ads continue to expand
Advertising tied to prediction markets has grown quickly, even as traditional sportsbook ads have slowed.
Data collected by the AGA with Sensor Tower shows that in the first two months of 2026, about 43% of digital sports betting ads were linked to prediction markets. These ads reached huge audiences, with 7 billion impressions reported in 2025. Kalshi stood out as the most visible operator, accounting for 5.2 billion impressions, far more than FanDuel’s 2.9 billion in 2026.
The rise in prediction market ads also brought concerns, with the AGA noting that around 15% of digital sports betting adds in 2025 failed to meet state rules, which required responsible gaming messages. Most of those came from prediction market platforms rather than regulated sportsbooks.
AGA still against prediction markets
The AGA has kept up its opposition to prediction markets, even while releasing new data about their advertising reach. Alongside the Indian Gaming Association, the group sent a letter in January to members of Congress raising concerns about the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s self‑certification process, which allows platforms to offer sports contracts.
The group argues that this system exploits the CFTC’s authority and undermines both state law and tribal sovereignty, despite the CFTC’s role under the Commodity Exchange Act.
The AGA has urged lawmakers to add event contract language into a cryptocurrency bill that would set rules for digital currency transactions. Its hard stance has not come without consequences though. This year has seen major sportsbook operators, including FanDuel and Fanatics, leave the association, citing disagreements over its position on prediction markets.
